Titans' running back wants new contract; should organization oblige?

If you follow the Tennessee Titans, or the NFL off-season in general, then you have probably heard about Chris Johnson's publicly-declared request for a new, lucrative contract after only two years in the league. The 24th selection in the 2008 NFL draft, Johnson is entering the third year of his original five year, 12 million dollar contract. One could easily argue that he is outplaying that contract, and Johnson and his agent, Joel Segal, are arguing just that. But should the Titans acquiesce to this request?

On one hand, the Titans would love to reward Johnson for his amazing play and keep him happily in a Titans uniform for about seven more years. Johnson brings a dimension to the Titans offense that has not been seen since the organization moved to Nashville in the late 90's. For the last decade, the Titans have been known for having good offensive and defensive lines, conservative quarterback play with a dual threat playing the position, a bruising running game designed to control the clock, and the occasional play-action pass to the tight end. The Titans had a year or two of "Air McNair" chucking the ball around to Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, Justin McCareins, and Tyrone Calico, but those years were the exception, not the rule. The Titans have handed the ball to guys like Eddie George, Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and LenDale White for so long that it seems odd to have such an electric player with the ball in his hands so often in a Jeff Fisher offense. I would assume that the front office would like to hang on to such an offensive jewel for as long as possible, even if it costs a hefty price.

But on the other hand, the Titans would like to protect themselves from the unknown. What if Johnson goes down with an ACL tear next season after he signs a mega-contract? What if he takes a few too many shots and he becomes far less effective after two or three years, leaving the Titans on the hook for 30-40 million dollars over the last few years of his contract? NFL teams typically protect themselves from things like this by structuring the contract in a way that would allow them to release a highly-paid player three to four years into the deal. For instance, if the Titans agreed to pay Johnson 9 million dollars per year for 7 years, then they would probably like to structure the deal like this:

• 30 million dollar signing bonus (guaranteed)
• Year one salary: $1 million
• Year two salary: $2 million
• Year three salary: $3 million
• Year four salary: $4 million
• Year five salary: $6 million
• Year six salary: $7 million
• Year seven salary: $10 million

Now, contracts are more complicated than the way I laid it out, but the object remains the same: give the player a nice signing bonus up front to keep him happy, but escalate the yearly salaries each year, because the yearly salary does not count against the cap if the player is released. So, if the Titans decided to let Johnson go after three years, then he would make 36 million dollars, and the Titans would not be responsible for the remaining 27 million dollars.

That is a typical salary. Unfortunately, the Titans won't be able to have much freedom if they decided to restructure Johnson's deal because of the "30 percent rule" that teams must follow, since a new CBA is not yet in effect and 2010-2011 will be an uncapped year. The rule pretty much states that a player's yearly salary cannot increase by more than 30 percent from 2010 to 2011 in the event of a contract restructuring. This article by Andrew Brandt explains it very well: 30 percent rule explained. Since Johnson earned $385,000 in base salary last year, it can only increase by $115,000 this year, and so on. The rule can be circumvented if the team is willing to pay a small base salary with a massive signing bonus, but this risky practice should not be expected.

Another interesting factor to consider is the lack of immediate production from running backs drafted in the late first round or second round since the 2000 draft. Of the 38 players who fit this description (I included Frank Gore, who was the first pick of the third round in 2005), only 15 of them combined for 1,500 total rushing yards during their first two years in the league, and only six runners totaled at least 2,000 yards. In fact, only two running backs drafted in the second half of the first round or second round have had eye-popping statistics during their first two years in the league. One of them, obviously, is Chris Johnson. The other is Clinton Portis, who was the 51st pick in the 2002 draft. Take a look at the top five performers who fit the criteria:

1. Chris Johnson, 24th pick - Titans 3,234 rushing yards 26 TDs (total)
2. Clinton Portis, 51st pick - Broncos 3,099 rushing yards 31 TDs (total)
3. Frank Gore, 65th pick - 49ers 2,303 rushing yards 12 TDs (total)
4. Travis Henry, 58th pick - Bills 2,167 rushing yards 18 TDs (total)
5. Matt Forte, 44th pick - Bears 2,167 rushing yards 16 TDs (total)

As you can see, Johnson and Portis are in a class all by themselves -- at least since the turn of the century. This issue does not affect players drafted in the top of the first round, because they obtained substantial salaries from the start; there is no need for them to restructure.

So, what did Clinton Portis and his agent do after two years? Well, here is an excerpt from a 2004 ESPN.com article by Len Pasquarelli (you can read the entire article HERE):

As a rookie, Portis signed a four-year contract that included a $1.29 million signing bonus but only minimum annual base salaries. His scheduled base salaries for the last two years of the deal are $380,000 in 2004 and $455,000 for 2005. At the Pro Bowl two weeks ago, Portis suggested he might boycott training camp unless his contract was upgraded and his comments did not sit well with Broncos management.

Sounds kind of like the Chris Johnson situation, doesn't it? Here is how the story ends: Portis traded to Redskins for Champ Bailey. The Redskins were willing to do something that the Broncos were not -- pay a ton of money to a running back. It has become common knowledge that a running back's NFL life expectancy is significantly shorter than that of a quarterback, wide receiver, or pretty much any other position. Previously productive running backs who become free agents after the age of 28 are pretty much destined to receive less-than-flattering offers from teams, even if they desperately need running back help. It is much more cost-effective to draft a running back in one of the early rounds, rather than take the risk with a guy approaching his thirties who might blow out a tire and never again be the same.

Just take a look at the Thomas Jones - Shaun Greene situation this year with the Jets. Or how about the way the Colts handled Edgerrin James? They simply cut bait and drafted Joseph Addai (and later, Donald Brown). I don't have to even get into the Titans' handling of Eddie George being replaced by Chris Brown (this one, not this one). Sometimes these things can get ugly, but you can't always blame the organizations. This isn't Major League Baseball; the NFL has a salary cap. Money can't be wasted on washed-up running backs.

So, where does this leave the Titans and Chris Johnson this year? Personally, I think the Titans are avoiding a huge headache since the 30 percent rule is in effect. Even a big time agent like Joel Segal (here is a list of his organization's clients) is unlikely to challenge a team to offer a big time extension which would have to include a massive signing bonus with a paltry salary. Therefore, I think Chris Johnson will continue to skip OTA's, but he will report to mandatory training camp practices. OTA's are voluntary, but players are charged hefty fines for skipping training camp. Chris Johnson, despite the dreadlocks and shiny grill, is, by all accounts, a professional, and he will not want to cause too much of a stir and become a team cancer. If a new CBA were in effect, however, then I think this could have potentially gotten ugly. Potential debacles such as this might add fuel to the fire for those pushing for the NFL to adopt an NBA-like rookie salary scale, but that is another post for another day.