As for the rest of the teams, they're left with the scraps -- but that's not always a bad thing. Take last year, for example, when the Kings were the league's lousiest team. They ended up with the number four pick, which was the worst-possible scenario for them. But fortune turned out to be on their side, as Tyreke Evans fell into their laps at the four spot, and he has since been dubbed the NBA Rookie of the Year.
Other than the Nets, it was the Timberwolves who proved to be the unluckiest lottery team, falling from number two to number four. But like the Kings last year, maybe the Rookie of the Year will be waiting for them at number four.
So, without further ado, I present to you "Colten's (way too long) NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0." In this version, I will place more emphasis on personal opinion than on general consensus. As we get closer and closer to the draft, I will probably change my picks in accordance with what is most likely to happen, whether I agree with the pick or not.
1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky
This is definitely the easiest pick to forecast. Wall is the consensus top prospect in the draft, and he also has a good personality and plays with flair, making him the perfect pick for a team in need of a new image. The Wizards can either slide Gilbert Arenas over to the shooting guard spot, or they can get rid of him, altogether. It would be tough to trade Arenas' huge contract, and cutting him would mean taking a big cap hit, but there is a chance they could cut him and then go to arbitration to figure out if the locker room gun incident would allow them to get off the hook for a large portion of his bonus money.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Kentucky
Most people have Evan Turner in this slot, and that could very well end up being the Sixers' pick, but I have thought for some time now that Cousins is the second best talent in the draft, so he is the pick here. Cousins would be an immediate upgrade over Samuel Dalembert (who will be an unrestricted FA in 2011), and it would allow the Sixers to keep their young 1-3 core of Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodola, and Thaddeus Young intact. I honestly don't think Turner would be much of an upgrade over AI or Young, so Cousins makes a lot of sense here. Plus, I have a feeling that Philly fans will embrace Cousins' perceived tough-guy (sometimes immature) attitude and his propensity for bullying people around down low.
In my opinion, Cousins projects as a terrific NBA post player due to his huge frame, soft touch around the basket, unconscious rebounding rate, and the likelihood that defensive three seconds, the restricted area, and solid outside shooting (at least better than what he had at Kentucky) to keep the defense spread out will help him continue to be the beast that Kentucky fans witnessed last year.
As an additional note, don't be surprised if the Sixers deal this pick to the Timberwolves on draft night. The T'Wolves have three first round picks, and the Sixers might think they can pick up one of those picks and still get Cousins at number four. It's hard to see the Nets taking Cousins at number three when they already have Brook Lopez. If this scenario goes down, remember you heard it here first!
3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech
While Nets fans are surely peeved that they had the best chance of all the lottery teams to win the John Wall sweepstakes, Derrick Favors would be a very nice consolation prize. Again, most experts would have Evan Turner long gone by now, but I think Favors is just as good of a prospect, and he fills a more pressing need for the Nets. Pairing Favors with Brook Lopez would give the Nets the most talented young frontcourt in the league. Lopez is a big, skilled center, who is quickly emerging as the best all-around center in the league (especially since Yao Ming has battled so many injuries). Favors is less skilled and not as big as Lopez, but he is the more explosive athlete and projects as an Amare Stoudemire-type player.
On the other hand, Turner would likely be a nice upgrade over Courtney Lee or Terrence Williams, but players like Favors are harder to come by than a guy like Turner. Plus, the Nets have a ton of cap space and will likely end up with a top free agent who can bolster the backcourt. Joe Johnson, anyone?
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Evan Turner, PG/SG/SF, Ohio State
See, I told you that the four spot wasn't all that bad! Evan Turner would be a fantastic fit for the T'Wolves. They have a couple of young point guards in Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio (if he ever makes his way to the NBA), and they have a couple of good post players in Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. They could also re-sign Darko Milicic who, apparently, enjoyed a bit of success last year playing in a three man post rotation along with Love and Jefferson. Corey Brewer is starting to emerge on the wing, but the T'Wolves could really use a playmaking, do-it-all shooting guard like Turner to accompany him.
I know that Minnesota is not a sexy landing spot, and I'm sure Turner would like to be a top two pick, but this scenario might end up being the best case for both Turner and the T'Wolves. We'll have to wait until June to see if it happens.
5. Sacramento Kings: Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest
Once again, I'm straying from the consensus (which would be Wesley Johnson) and going with my gut. Al-Farouq Aminu has the potential to be the best wing out of this class (that includes Turner and Johnson) thanks to his freakish combination of size, length, and athleticism. Johnson is the better leaper and better shooter, and is a freak of nature in his own right, but Aminu is an extremely fluid athlete who has better height and bulk. He can already rebound extremely well for a small forward, and his defensive upside is off the charts. If he improves his ball handling and perimeter stroke (which he should, since he has good mechanics and is only 19 years old, compared to Johnson, who is 22), then Aminu could become a future all-star ... at least, in my humble opinion.
Another reason the Kings might go with Aminu is because they already have a couple of guys on their roster who like to jack three-bombs like Johnson -- Francisco Garcia and Donte Green. I think a defender/rebounder type would fit in better with what the Kings need.
6. Golden State Warriors: Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse
The Warriors would be ecstatic if Johnson fell this far. He would immediately fill the void left by Anthony Morrow, should the free agency winds take him to another team, and he could give the Warriors some flexibility at the three spot, which is currently held down by Corey Maggette. Johnson fits the mold of a Nelly-ball player in that he can run the floor like a gazelle, he can shoot the trey, and he can finish above the rim on the fast break. While the Warriors could also use some front court depth, I think they would go with Johnson in this scenario and see if guys like Anthony Randolph and Brandon Wright can live up to their potential.
7. Detroit Pistons: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
This is another team that I could definitely see trying to trade down. Aldrich is a significant drop-off in talent from the top six players, and I'm not sure the Pistons will see the value of taking Aldrich here. However, they have to take someone in this mock draft, so I envision them taking a big-bodied post player to replace UFA's Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox, and Kwame Brown. The two best candidates are Cole Aldrich and Daniel Orton, but Aldrich is the more polished product, so he gets the nod here.
Although Aldrich will probably never become an all-star, he is a big body who is a decent rebounder, but a very good shot blocker. He is fairly skilled for a big man, showing the ability to knock down mid range jumpers and pass out of double teams while he was at Kansas. Aldrich is a tough player, so that will set well with the blue collar fans of Detroit. All in all, this isn't a bad pick for Detroit in this situation.
8. Los Angeles Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
The Clippers are another team who will be shopping their pick. Hayward is obviously a very good player, as evidenced by his NCAA Tournament performance last year, but I'm not sure he's worth the number eight pick. The value here is with big men like Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, Ekpe Udoh, etc., but the Clippers have an abundance of solid big men like Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Sure, Monroe or Davis would be an upgrade over Craig Smith or Drew Gooden at the backup PF spot, but there is no reason to spend the eighth overall pick on a backup PF, especially after drafting Blake Griffin number one overall last year.
If they are able to trade down, they might also look at a point guard like Eric Bledsoe to groom behind Baron Davis, but I think SF is the position they key in on -- especially if they can't land LeBron, Joe Johnson, or Rudy Gay in free agency. Other SF possibilities are Paul George and Luke Babbitt.
9. Utah Jazz (via NY Knicks): Greg Monroe, PF/C, Georgetown
The Jazz are set to lose Carlos Boozer to free agency this summer, but the Jazz shouldn't worry. They have Paul Millsap waiting in the wings to fill the vacant PF spot, and Mehmet Okur is a solid starting C who can knock down threes like they're free throws. Monroe is the most skilled post player in this year's draft, which is perfect for Jerry Sloan's pick-and-roll-oriented, half court offense. Monroe would immediately jump in as the first big off the bench, and would become the Jazz's PF or C of the future. This would be a great pick for the Jazz.
10. Indiana Pacers: Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Texas
The Pacers desperately need a playmaker in the backcourt. They were hoping for a lottery miracle so they could steal John Wall, but he'll be long gone when the Pacers make their pick at number ten. That means Avery Bradley will have to suffice. Bradley, not Wall, was ESPN's top ranked recruit coming out of high school a year ago (although sites like Rivals.com and Scout.com are usually much better at the ranking game), so Bradley is a big time player in his own right. I think Bradley's stock will increase during the pre-draft camps, so even though this seems high right now, I don't think this will be a reach at all come June. Bradley reminds me of a Jerryd Bayless/Monta Ellis type of combo guard who is an explosive athlete and can create for himself and others. While he is kind of a tweener without a true position, players like Bradley have value because of their elite athleticism. Bradley also has a reputation as a terrific perimeter defender, probably the best in this year's class, so that is another benefit he will provide. If he can improve his range on his jump shot, then Bradley is a potential stud.
11. New Orleans Hornets: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky
The Hornets have to be pleasantly surprised with their picks last year -- Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. Add that to the return of a healthy Chris Paul, and you have the makings of a very nice backcourt. The frontcourt, however, could use a big man to backup Emeka Okafor and also be able to step in for David West, so Daniel Orton seems like the logical choice. Orton has the size to defend the PF or C, and that trait separates him from Ekpe Udoh and Ed Davis. Though Orton didn't put up big stats in his limited minutes last year for Kentucky, he projects as a solid defender, shot blocker, rebounder, and finisher at the next level. He needs to polish his offensive game, but Orton is an explosive athlete who could surprise some people and contribute right away -- that is, assuming he can stay out of foul trouble.
12. Memphis Grizzlies: Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada
The Grizzlies' biggest weakness (other than, perhaps, PG) is three point shooting. Luke Babbitt would seem like a good choice to address that issue, as he shot 43% from three as a freshman at Nevada, and 41% as a sophomore. Standing at 6'-9", he has great size for an NBA SF, but he lacks the athleticism to be an effective defender on the perimeter. It might be worth the risk, though, since some people think Babbitt could become the next Chris Mullins. It is also worth noting that Rudy Gay will be a RFA this summer, and, although the Grizzlies front office is saying that they will match almost any offer Rudy receives, Babbitt would be good insurance.
13. Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
The bad news: It looks like Chris Bosh is on his way out of Toronto this summer and on to greener pastures. The good news: "Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0" has Ed Davis falling all the way to number 13. Davis is a nice prospect who would have been a top five pick had he come out after his freshman year. Injuries and a poor showing as a sophomore, however, have dropped his stock all the way to the mid to late lottery, so he might find himself freezing his butt off in Toronto for the next 4-5 years. Davis is not a very skilled offensive player, but he is an excellent defender and shot blocker and he has terrific athleticism. He's no Chris Bosh, but he's the best option for the Raptors at this point.
14. Houston Rockets: Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall
We are ... the Houston Rockets! So, what do you get when Yao Ming misses the entire 2009-2010 season? If you guessed "Chuck Hayes starting at center," then you are CORRECT! Now, I love Chuck Hayes, and he is definitely an NBA-caliber player; but when you have a 6'-6" guy starting at C, then you know you need some help down low. Hassan Whiteside stormed onto the college scene as a freshman at Marshall where he averaged 13 pts, 9 reb, and 5.5 blk in 26 mpg. The 6'-11" shot blocker would provide some excellent depth down low for the Rockets, who have been haunted by injuries to their star players for the last several years. If the pick is not Whiteside, then I'd bet on Ekpe Udoh.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky
The Bucks have a playmaking PG in Brandon Jennings and a good, young C in Andrew Bogut, but that's about where it ends. John Salmons is a nice piece, and I'm sure the Bucks will try to retain him, but he is expected to opt out of his contract and become a FA this summer. Assuming the Bucks bring him back, they could really use an upgrade at PF (currently held down by Luc Richard Mbah a Moute), and Patrick Patterson would fit in nicely beside Bogut. Patterson is a little undersized for an NBA PF, but he is an excellent athlete who rebounds well for his size and he is able to step out and hit long jumpers. Patterson has a terrific motor and will definitely be a fan favorite wherever he ends up.
16. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Charlotte): Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Baylor
The T'Wolves plugged a backcourt hole at the four spot with Evan Turner, so now they turn their attention to a backup post player who can block shots. Ekpe Udoh fits the mold, so they are thrilled that he drops down to number 15. He is also a nice contrast to the bulkier PF's already on their roster, like Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Udoh would provide a good spark off the bench by using his energy and athleticism to help carry the T'Wolves' second unit.
17. Chicago Bulls (via Milwaukee): James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State
The Bulls have a nice young duo of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson is showing nice improvement at the four, but the Bulls lack a true SG who can stretch the floor and allow spacing for Rose to penetrate. James Anderson would be a terrific fit here. His long range shooting ability, along with his ability to penetrate the lane, would be a welcome addition to the Bulls backcourt. As an added bonus, Anderson would be a terrific wingman for a guy like LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, and the Bulls are hoping to land one of them this summer in free agency.
18. Miami Heat: Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State
I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have Eric Bledsoe going here. While that might be the case, I think they'll stick with Mario Chalmers for another year and address the gaping hole in the post. Jermaine O'Neal, Udonis Haslem, and Jamaal Magloire will all be UFA's this summer, so the Heat will need to bring in a young anchor in the post. They will look right up the road to Tallahassee and see 7'-1" Solomon Alabi staring right back at them. Even though that is a creepy visual, the Heat will still draft him and be happy that they have a huge shot blocker who could end up being the next Hasheem Thabeet -- except hopefully not ending up in the D-League for an extended amount of time.
19. Boston Celtics: Xavier Henry, SG/SF, Kansas
I've always thought Xavier Henry's game was a lot like Paul Pierce's, so this is a nice match. The Celtics need a good perimeter player to come off the bench and not be afraid to knock down some shots. Henry will do just that. I think Henry would be a terrific value pick at number 19, and he should be able to contribute right away, despite the fact that he's a one-and-done. He has a very strong build, but a very smooth game. I also think he is a little bit more athletic than people give him credit for, kind of like Paul Pierce. His game should mesh well with Rajon Rondo's, so Henry will have the chance to become the Celtics' SG or SF of the future.
20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas
The Spurs are getting old, fast. I could see them going in a number of different directions with this pick, but I think Damion James is a good fit. James is a terrific athlete with toughness. He dramatically improved his outside shot this year in college, and he is an excellent defender and rebounder. I think James could be a valuable asset for the Spurs as a guy who can come off the bench and defend the other team's best perimeter player, especially larger perimeter players like Rudy Gay and Trevor Ariza, both of whom are in the Spurs' division. I wonder how long the Spurs can continue their playoff ways. I think they might end up in the lottery next year, but we'll see.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky
I know, I know, the Thunder already have Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor on their roster. So why Eric Bledsoe? Well, neither Westbrook nor Maynor is a true PG, and I think every NBA team should have a true PG on its roster. Bledsoe has often been compared to Westbrook, but I'm not sure that is a great comparison. Athletically, yes, Bledsoe is Westbrook's equal, but he doesn't have the size that Westbrook possesses, and their games are a little different. Bledsoe possesses tremendous upside as a traditional point guard who will look to set up his teammates more than the ever-attacking Westbrook or jump-shooting Maynor. Bledsoe doesn't have the highest basketball IQ yet, but he is tough, athletic, and confident, and could become a valuable contributor and maybe a very nice trade asset in a couple of years.
22. Portland Trail Blazers: Paul George, SF, Fresno State
Portland is known for going for the best player available, so the slip of Paul George stops here. The Blazers already have Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster at the three spot, but George is an intriguing prospect with a ton of upside. A big, athletic SF with a nice stroke, George is often compared to Trevor Ariza. The downside is that he is very raw and didn't dominate in college, so he might have to ride the pine for a couple of years before the Blazers' investment pays off.
23. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Donatas Motiejunas, PF/C, Lithuania
Like I mentioned earlier, the T'Wolves might shop this pick to move up to take Evan Turner. If not, then they'll probably take the best available international player to store overseas for a couple of years. Unlike the Ricky Rubio situation, however, they might actually do this on purpose. Motiejunas has been compared to Dirk Nowitzki and Andrea Bargnani, so he's definitely worth the investment at number 23.
24. Atlanta Hawks: Willie Warren, PG/SG, Oklahoma
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. For those who thought Eric Bledsoe should have returned to school for his sophomore year, look no further than Willie Warren as a prime example of why he should get while the gettin's good. Warren is not a true PG, but he can score and is a good athlete. With the likely departure of Joe Johnson, I can envision Jamal Crawford stepping into the starting role and Warren would have a chance to be the first guard off the bench and provide some scoring. This could prove to be a steal for Atlanta. Is it just me, or does Warren just seem like a Hawk's player?
25. Memphis Grizzlies (via Denver): Terrico White, PG/SG, Mississippi
In a draft with very few options at PG, Terrico White, the Memphis native, gets to come home and play in front of his family and friends. Ole Miss is also right down the road from Memphis, so he will have his high school and collegiate fans supporting him at the FedEx Forum. White might be an especially good fit for the Grizzlies because if he is able to win the starting PG job at some point, then it could lead to slightly higher ticket sales -- and we all know that the Grizzlies need some help in that department.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Phoenix): Kevin Seraphin, PF, France
The Thunder could end up choosing among several power forwards in this spot, including: Kevin Seraphin, Craig Brackins, Larry Sanders, and Keith "Tiny" Gallon. I'll give the edge to Seraphin, though, due to the fact that the Thunder can stash him overseas for a while if they'd like. You could make the argument for Gallon, who played his college ball at Oklahoma, but keep in mind that he is the player who accepted cash while he was being recruited to play there, thus putting OU on probation. I'm not sure he'd be the local fan favorite-type.
27. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas): Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington
I think the Nets will look for the best PG or SF available at this spot, so I'm going with Quincy Pondexter. He doesn't have the best jump shot, but Pondexter showed his explosive scoring ability and overall game when he led Washington to the Sweet Sixteen last year before losing to West Virginia. Terrence Williams was underwhelming in his rookie campaign, so Pondexter should be able to compete for a starting spot at some point this season. Even if the Nets don't land a top FA this summer, a lineup of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Quincy Pondexter, Derrick Favors, and Brook Lopez is about a million times better than what they put on the floor this season.
28. Memphis Grizzlies (via Lakers): Jarvis Varnado, PF, Mississippi State
This is the spot where the Grizzlies would like to take a foreign project-type who they could stash overseas, but I'm not sure the value is there, so they go with a shot blocking PF in Jarvis Varnado. The Grizz have a nice frontcourt of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Hasheem Thabeet, but Varnado would be able to carve a niche as a defensive substitute for Randolph. This might seem a little high for Varnado, but the Grizz don't have a second round pick, and Varnado would fit in nicely.
29. Orlando Magic: Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia
Matt Barnes is the Magic's best perimeter defender, but he will be a FA this summer, so they will need a versatile perimeter defender to step in. Devin Ebanks could be that guy. Ebanks guarded the opponent's best player this year while at WVU, whether it was a PG, SG, SF, or PF. Ebanks is a long, explosive athlete with an excellent work ethic and defensive instincts. If he can improve his offensive game, then he would be quite a steal at number 29.
30. Washington Wizards (via Cleveland): Larry Sanders, PF, VCU
The Wizards started the first round by taking John Wall, and they'll wrap things up by taking a big man from right down the road, VCU's Larry Sanders. He is a bit raw, but Sanders has high level athleticism for a PF and he is a very good shot blocker. He may take some time to develop, but the local product could pay off down the road.
If you want to compare my mock draft with some others, then check out WalterFootball.com's NBA mock draft and mock draft database and FootballFanSpot's NBA mock draft and mock draft database, in which this mock draft is included. Whoo! That's a lot of times to say mock draft!
If you want to compare my mock draft with some others, then check out WalterFootball.com's NBA mock draft and mock draft database and FootballFanSpot's NBA mock draft and mock draft database, in which this mock draft is included. Whoo! That's a lot of times to say mock draft!
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