Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 2.0

Before we get started, let's take a look at a few draft-related developments that have occurred since I posted Version 1.0 eight days ago.

  • Evan Turner is no longer a lock for the #2 spot, according to ESPN's David Thorpe and Chad Ford. Way to jump on the bandwagon, guys.
  • Cole Aldrich's stock appears to be slipping, which is not a surprise. I was looking for a good excuse to move him down in V1.0 last week.
  • The jury is still out on DeMarcus Cousins. I've seen him as high as #2 and as low as #6. I went on the record last week and pegged him as the second best prospect in the draft.
  • It looks like NBA decision makers are falling for Paul George. Time will tell if this is good evaluating or a big mistake, but he seems destined for the lottery or shortly after.
  • Eric Bledsoe measured bigger than expected and did well at the combine, so his stock is on the rise. Should I give in and send him to the Heat like everyone else?
  • Patrick Patterson measured big at the combine and knocked people's socks off during the interview sessions, so his stock is on the rise.
Without further ado, I present to you Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 2.0. This one will be shorter than V1.0, I promise.

1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky
No change here. Wall is the consensus top prospect in the draft, and there are no red flags surrounding him. He will be the face of the franchise for the next decade-plus.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Philadelphia, via Charlotte): Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State
I hinted at this trade immediately following the lottery, but this week I'm brave enough to make it official. The Sixers already have a perimeter trio of Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young (who I think should step into the starting SF spot), so Evan Turner wouldn't be the best value. The Sixers will try to convince the Timberwolves to take on Elton Brand's contract in this deal, but I'm guessing the Sixers will simply acquire Minnesota's second first round pick, #16 overall.

It is no secret that Minnesota covets Evan Turner, and he would fit in very nicely with Jonny Flynn and Corey Brewer on the perimeter. If this trade goes down, remember: You heard it here first!

3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech
In this scenario, this is probably an easy decision for the Nets. With Brook Lopez already on the roster, DeMarcus Cousins is ruled out, so Derrick Favors is the pick. Favors should immediately jump into the starting lineup and form the best young frontcourt tandom in the NBA, along with Lopez.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota): DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky
By trading with Minnesota, the Sixers receive the #16 overall pick, but they still end up with the draft's #2 prospect. This is an excellent move for the Sixers. Don't be surprised if Cousins averages 14-plus points and 9-plus rebounds in his rookie campaign.

5. Sacramento Kings: Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest
The gritty, aggressive Aminu gets the nod over the finesse guy, Wesley Johnson. The Kings need a perimeter defender who can slash to the basket and rebound, so Aminu fits the mold. Aminu has more upside than Johnson and Turner, so the Kings are happy to take him fifth.

6. Golden State Warriors: Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse
The Warriors need another perimeter player with size to spell Corey Maggette and eventually replace him. Johnson runs the floor like a gazelle, is a terrific outside shooter, and can finish well above the rim; all of these traits are perfect for Nelly Ball, so Johnson would be a terrific fit in Golden State.

7. Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown
Monroe measured bigger than expected at the combine, so the Pistons won't be afraid to take him over Cole Aldrich at #7. The Pistons are desperate for an anchor in the post, so Monroe is the pick here.

8. Los Angeles Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
This is a tough one to forecast. I could see the Clippers selecting Hayward, Paul George, Xavier Henry, or Luke Babbitt, but I think Hayward will fit in best between Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin due to his consistent shooting, scrappy defense, and underrated athleticism. At 6'-8", he also has good size for a SF.

9. Utah Jazz (via New York): Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky
I'm reluctant to put Patterson this high, but I think he's the best fit for the Jazz in this scenario. Besides, Patterson measured taller than expected at the combine and was terrific in the interview sessions. Ideally, Greg Monroe falls here, but if not, then I think Patterson would be a terrific candidate to team with Paul Millsap as they try to replace Carlos Boozer's production at the four spot.

10. Indiana Pacers: Avery Bradley, Guard, Texas
The Pacers are desperate for a playmaking guard, and Bradley is one of the most explosive players in this year's class. He didn't consistently shine at Texas like many thought he would, but his upside is significant and he is already an outstanding perimeter defender.

11. New Orleans Hornets: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky
Orton is another player who gets mixed reviews, so it is tough to project where he lands. The Hornets need help down low, however, and Orton has the size and athleticism to excel in a pick-and-roll system with Chris Paul. He also has good shooting form, so he projects as a solid pick-and-pop option, as well. Add in the fact that he can guard NBA big men and block shots, and you have a guy who should end up in the lottery, despite his limited production in college.

12. Memphis Grizzlies: Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada
Rumor has it that the Grizz are head over heels in love with Babbitt, so they should be excited if he drops this far. Babbitt has the combination of size and shooting ability of a Chris Mullins, but he is not an explosive athlete, so there are doubts about his ability to defend on the perimeter. The Grizzlies need a three point shooter, though, so they'll happily take a guy who is 6'-9" and shoots 42% from downtown.

13. Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
With the expected departure of Chris Bosh this summer, the Raptors will be looking for his replacement. Davis doesn't have the best size, but he is long and athletic with a good motor. Had he entered the draft last year, he probably would have been a top five pick, so the Raptors might be getting good value here.

14. Houston Rockets: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
Aldrich would be a nice pickup here for the Rockets, who need a backup center for the oft-injured Yao Ming. He doesn't have great athleticism or skill, but he has enough of both, along with a propensity to block shots, that he is the pick here.

15. Milwaukee Bucks (via Chicago): Xavier Henry, SG, Kansas
With Michael Redd and John Salmons set to become UFA's this summer, the Bucks will probably look for help on the wings. Henry has a good stroke, and he can play the two or the three. He is also a better athlete than people give him credit for, much like another Kansas player, Paul Pierce.

16. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota, via Charlotte): Paul George, SF, Fresno State
The Sixers already shored up their front court with DeMarcus Cousins, so they now look for help on the wings. With Thaddeus Young moving to the perimeter as a "big SF", they need a guy who is more perimeter-oriented. I considered James Anderson, but he is too much like another guy on their roster, Jodie Meeks, so Paul George is the selection here. George's stock is on the rise, so don't be surprised if he is gone by this point.

17. Chicago Bulls (via Milwaukee): James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State
The Bulls struggled to replace Ben Gordon's outside shooting when they let him bolt to Detroit as a FA last summer, so Anderson will be a welcomed addition to the Bulls perimeter squad.

18. Miami Heat: Ekpe Udoh, PF, Baylor
I'm tempted to give them Eric Bledsoe, but the Heat are desperate for help down low, so I think they will take the best available PF or C. Udoh isn't the best athlete, and he doesn't have the best size, but he is an excellent defender and shot blocker with a decent offensive game.

19. Boston Celtics: Lance Stephenson, SF, Cincinnati
This is probably the first real surprise of the draft, but with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Tony Allen all set to become free agents this summer, the Celtics will probably be in need of a scorer on the wing. Stephenson is a bit of a controversial figure, but the kid has talent, so the Celtics could take a chance on him here.

20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas
The Spurs could use someone on the perimeter to guard the Rudy Gays and Trevor Arizas of the world, so the Spurs go with James, the Texas product.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky
The Thunder lack a true PG, and Bledsoe is probably the best player available here, so they take another uber-athlete to join Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kevin Durant.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Donatas Motiejunas, PF, Lithuania
With Joel Przybilla and Juwan Howard set to enter free agency this summer, the Blazers could use another big man. Motiejunas needs to add some bulk, but he is a good value at #22. Hassan Whiteside and Solomon Alabi are options here, as well, but they are too similar to Greg Oden. Motiejunas reminds a little of LaMarcus Aldridge, but I think they could be on the court at the same time.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State
Darko Milicic is set to become a UFA this summer, so they might be looking for a true center to replace him. I'm not crazy about Alabi, but I could be wrong. He would certainly fit in well with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, so he's a nice pick here.

24. Atlanta Hawks: Willie Warren, Guard, Oklahoma
Joe Johnson is expected to sign elsewhere this summer, so the Hawks could use a combo guard to provide some points off the bench as a backup to Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford. Like Ed Davis, I bet Warren wishes he entered the draft last year, when he likely would have been a top ten pick.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (via Denver): Terrico White, Guard, Ole Miss
The Grizzlies have shown a propensity to go after local kids, as displayed by their flirtation with Monta Ellis and their recent signing of Ronnie Brewer. White grew up in Memphis and played his college ball down the road at Ole Miss, plus he would provide some PG depth.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Phoenix): Hassan Whiteside, PF, Marshall
Despite his height, Whiteside is a bit of a finesse player more suited to play PF, so that is why I think he drops so low. I might change my mind before the draft, but for now the Thunder will be happy to take the best available big men remaining. As evidenced in the Lakers series, the Thunder might only be a big man away from doing big things.

27. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas): Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington
Not the best shooter in the world, but he does just about everything else really well. An experienced senior, Pondexter would have a chance to contribute right away, much like another former wing for the Huskies, Brandon Roy.

28. Memphis Grizzlies (via L.A. Lakers): Jarvis Varnado, PF, Mississippi State
The Grizzlies have a nice frontcourt trio of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Hasheem Thabeet, but they could use a defensive substitute for Randolph, and Varnado would be the perfect fit. Unlike Thabeet last year, Varnado will be ready to contribute right away.

29. Orlando Magic: Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia
Ebanks is a terrific athlete with excellent size for his position. He is a little raw offensively, but has the potential to improve. He also displayed a great work ethic under the coaching of Bob Huggins, and a willingness to commit himself to defense. With the looming free agency of Matt Barnes, Ebanks would be a nice addition to team with Mickael Pietrus at the three.

30. Washington Wizards (via Cleveland): Larry Sanders, PF, Virginia Commonwealth
Sanders is considered a project, but his upside is significant. He is listed at 6'-11", but he runs the floor like an athletic 6'-9" guy and he can block shots. I'm guessing the Wizards have seen Sanders play a lot since he is right down the road, so if anyone is familiar with the kid, it's probably the Wiz.

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