Blue Blindness

2011 NBA Preview (Vegas Style)

2010-10-25T20:13:00.008-05:00

As the talking sports heads continue to hammer your brains with chatter about Brett Favre phone pics, helmet-to-helmet hits, and highlights of Cam Newton steamrolling the ants that stand in his way, I have taken it upon myself to notify you that the NBA regular season is upon us. Finally. And frankly, I couldn't be happier.

To me, basketball season is the best part of the year. Football season is great for about a month, but then your team loses a couple of games and you wind up hoping to claw your way to the Music City Bowl. The NFL is a little kinder on the early losers because the longer season allows teams to make a late run for a playoff spot, but lots of fans are already mailing in the season and hoping for a high draft pick. Basketball season is not like that. It's better.

Now, I really enjoy college and professional football, but they usually wind up less fulfilling as a whole. College and professional basketball rarely let me down. The NBA playoffs is vastly entertaining, and March Madness is -- let's be honest -- the best sporting event in America. Here are five good reasons why basketball season is, to me, the best:

1. It is inclusive. There are 30 NBA teams and 16 of them make the playoffs. In college basketball, 68 teams will play in the big dance, plus 32 more in the NIT. If your team stinks during the regular season but gets hot at the end, then you can just win the conference tournament and receive an automatic bid. Basketball allows you to keep your hope for a longer period of time.

2. It lasts longer. Basketball starts in late October and finishes in June. Football season starts in early September and ends in January.

3. Games are shorter, but have just as much action. It takes 2-2.5 hours to watch a basketball game, compared to 3-3.5 hours to watch a football game. The clock only runs in basketball while the action is happening, but the football clock mostly runs between snaps. I like to keep things moving.

4. Basketball is not as intruded upon as football. Whether it is the BCS controversy that happens every year or the seemingly constant rule tinkering and micro-management by Roger Goodell and his cronies, it seems like there are just too many cooks in the football kitchen. Basketball is more apt to just let the boys play.

5. High level basketball is easy on the eyes. Transition dunks, corner threes, full-court pressure, passes that thread the needle, the list goes on ... basketball is a beautiful sport to watch. I love it!

Bonus Reason: Basketball is on every day. You can always find several basketball games on TV. As for football, it all happens on the weekends. Thursday and Friday night options are very limited.

Now that we've discussed why basketball season is so great, let's turn our attention to gambling. Fortunately, I won't actually place bets on my NBA over/unders, but it's a fun exercise, anyway. I say "fortunately" because the Vegas odds makers are very clever. These over/unders are pretty much spot-on, in my opinion, so I have a tough task ahead of me. It will hopefully be a happy reunion when I revisit these forecasts somewhere down the line.

Let's take a look at the NBA season-to-be (in alphabetical order):

Atlanta Hawks (46.5) OVER: The Hawks re-signed Joe Johnson and have their young trio of Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford back for another run through the East. The question mark is at point guard with Old Man Mike Bibby running the show. If the Hawks want to make a legit run, then they need backup PG Jeff Teague to step up his game and show people why he was a highly touted prospect coming out of Wake Forest. Despite their considerable talent level, the Hawks are prone to underachieve. I wonder if the lowered expectations will help them this season.

Boston Celtics (54.5) OVER: With Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, and Perkins around, they are too talented to not expect 55 wins. I'm curious to see how well Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal supplement Perkins in the post. They might miss Tony Allen's defense and energy off the bench come playoff time, but I guess that's why they drafted Avery Bradley. They’re getting old, but they should still be a top seed this year.

Charlotte Bobcats (39.5) UNDER: Is DJ Augustin really their starting point guard? Yuck. If the Bobcats want to sniff the playoffs this year in the improved East, then Gerald Wallace had better duplicate his career year from 2010. I just don't think it's a good sign when Boris Diaw and Nazr Mohammed are two-thirds of your starting frontcourt. This team needs a high lottery pick, and I would bet they get one come next summer.

Chicago Bulls (46.5) OVER: Most basketball analysts seem to be high on the Bulls this year, so I guess I'll hop on the bandwagon. Derrick Rose is obviously a stud, and Joakim Noah has finally decided to stop annoying people and just play good defense and rebound. The Bulls should be a top defensive team this year with Rose, Noah, Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, and Luol Deng. I read an article talking about how Luol Deng is the X-factor this year for the Bulls. I agree.

Cleveland Cavaliers (30.5) UNDER: Who is going to score for this team? Who is the go-to guy? Mo Williams? Anthony Parker? Antawn Jamison? Not good. Their best player is probably energy guy, Anderson Varejao. Even if JJ Hickson steps up like some people hope, I don't foresee 30 wins in this team's future. I know they’re mad at LeBron, but who wouldn’t prefer to live in Miami instead of Cleveland?

Dallas Mavericks (49.5) OVER: The Mavs have won 50 games for ten consecutive years, yet they have zero championships to show for it. I think the smart money would be on another 50-win season, but no ring. The Mavs are pretty much the anti-Spurs. The Spurs do just enough in the regular season, but then turn it up in the playoffs. The Mavs have adopted the opposite philosophy to its detriment.

Denver Nuggets (43.5) UNDER: To predict the Nuggets to win 44 games is to predict that Carmelo Anthony will remain in Denver for the entirety of the season. I am unwilling to predict that, so I'll take the under. Fortunately, the Bird Man has a new throat tattoo, so at least the fans in Denver will have some new artwork to contemplate.

Detroit Pistons (31.5) UNDER: The Pistons have some nice pieces, but how do they fit? Austin Daye and Tayshaun Prince are mirror images of each other, and Ben Gordon and Rip Hamilton also have similar games. The same can be said for Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum. What does it all mean? I think Prince and Rip will be playing elsewhere by season's end, and the Pistons will once again be in the lottery. But that's a good thing, because they need a dynamic young guard to go along with Stuckey and Greg Monroe.

Golden State Warriors (30.5) UNDER: Everyone loves Steph Curry, but the opposite public sentiment is felt about his running-mate, Monta Ellis. Both players are fun to watch play basketball, so I love them equally. I like the addition of David Lee as a hustle and rebound guy, but I get the feeling that he is a tad overrated. He's a nice piece, but I don't think his presence adds many wins. They're one guy away.

Houston Rockets (48.5) OVER: I went back and forth on this one, but I finally decided that even when (not if) Yao gets hurt again, they have enough depth in the frontcourt (Brad Miller, Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Patrick Patterson) to still be good. Their backcourt (Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin) will score some points, but will be a liability on defense, so the bigs will have their hands full protecting the rim. I say they get it done and hit the 50 win mark.

Indiana Pacers (33.5) UNDER: Danny Granger seems to think the Pacers will make the playoffs. Okay, let's take a look at the lineup:

PG: Darren Collison -- okay, he's a nice addition.
SF: Danny Granger -- very nice player. Who's next?
C: Roy Hibbert -- don't laugh. He's not so bad. Granger might have me sold, until ...
PF: Josh McRoberts -- WHAT!? How is J-Mac starting in the NBA? Backing him up is fellow wild man, Psycho T. If I were a Pacers fan, I would shoot myself in the face.
SG: Mike Dunleavy -- whatever.

Los Angeles Clippers (36.5) UNDER: Blake Griffin is receiving a lot of hype, and deservedly so. He's the number one pick from last year and he is exciting to watch. I wonder, though, if people need to hold their horses when it comes to anointing him the next great PF. I'd like to see how he holds up in the half court, and not just when he's throwing down dunks on fast breaks. I'm also curious to see if Good Baron or Evil Baron shows up this year. Good or evil, I think the Clips are a little overrated -- probably mostly due to Bill Simmons podcasts.

Los Angeles Lakers (56.5) OVER: I planned on going under here, my thinking being the Lakers would sleepwalk through the regular season a la the Spurs, but the Lakers are just too talented -- especially with the additions of Matt Barnes and Steve Blake. They won't let up enough to lose 25 games. I bet they win 60.

Memphis Grizzlies (38.5) OVER: I follow the Griz pretty closely, so I feel comfortable taking the over here. I expected their line to be 42.5, so 38.5 seems like a bargain. The Griz were very fortunate last season in the injury department, so I'm expecting a few bumps and bruises this year, but this team won 40 games last year and improved in basically every problem area (experience, bench scoring, front court depth, 3-point shooting) and Mike Conley, by all accounts, looks ready to establish himself as a legitimate NBA starting point guard (even if he'll never be an all-star). I like the Griz to win 45 games, 50 if they have another good year health-wise. Their accumulation of high draft picks over the last several years via bad records and trades should finally pay off with a playoff berth. If not, then the city of Memphis will likely slip into a deep depression.

Miami Heat (64.5) OVER: Again, I planned on going under, but then I tried to imagine a team of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh losing 15 games, but I couldn't. I'm not sure they'll win the championship due to issues at PG, C, and the bench, but I like them to have the best record in the league by at least five games.

Milwaukee Bucks (45.5) OVER: It seems odd that the Bucks are expected to be a playoff team, but they have the goods to back it up. It was unfortunate that Andrew Bogut was injured during the playoffs last year, but this year they appear to be a shoo-in for the postseason and will probably give a higher seed all they can handle. I'm not sure what the significance is of having Michael Redd, John Salmons, and Corey Maggette on the same team, but if they are all healthy at the same time, then that is a lot of scoring.

Minnesota Timberwolves (23.5) UNDER: This could easily be the worst team in the league. But I'll tell you what ... if they win the lottery next year and take the best player in the draft and finally get Ricky Rubio in town, they would have to be the most-improved team in 2012, right?

New Jersey Nets (24.5) UNDER: I would feel bad for Brook Lopez, but now that Russian billionaire, Mikhail Prokhorov owns the Nets, I'm sure they'll buy their way into relevance a la Mark Cuban's Mavericks. I think Melo is going to the Knicks, so I'll take the under here and bank on the Nets spending big money next summer.

New Orleans Hornets (41.5) OVER: If Chris Paul stays healthy, they're pretty much a lock to win 40 games. I'm betting they'll win two more. Paul has a way of dictating the pace of the game on both ends of the floor by dominating the point guard match-up, and he just makes everyone on his team look like an all-star (see David West and, previously, Tyson Chandler). When it's all said and done, I think they'll just miss the playoffs because Paul's supporting cast just isn't quite good enough to make them a top eight team in the West. But I think they'll have a winning record.

New York Knicks (35.5) OVER: The additions of Raymond Felton and Amare Stoudemire should have the Knicks flirting with 35 wins this year, anyway, but if they execute a trade for Carmelo Anthony this season (as many expect), then the Knicks could win 45-50 games. If they are somehow able to also land Chris Paul, then now you're talking a legitimate East contender to push the Heat, Magic, and Celtics. I'd kind of like to see that happen. I'm not a Knicks fan, but their fans have suffered enough over the last decade that I'd be okay with them enjoying some success and creating some drama in the East. Plus, it takes Chris Paul out of the Southwest division -- the home of my Griz.

Oklahoma City Thunder (51.5) OVER: It seems that a lot of people are ready to proclaim the Thunder as the West's second-best team behind only the Lakers, now that Kevin Durant is perceived as a legitimate MVP candidate and Russell Westbrook helped Team USA to a gold medal this summer at the FIBA Championships. I'm not so sure. Looking at their roster, they still have major issues in the frontcourt with Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka being their top two options in the post. Their starting power forward, Jeff Green, is really more of a three, and his backup, Nick Collison, just isn't very good. Then there's BJ Mullins. What's up with him, anyway? Wasn't he the top ranked recruit coming out of high school a few years ago? Ouch. Anyway, I like the Thunder to rack up a lot of wins during the regular season because of Kevin Durant and his scoring prowess, but I would be surprised if they make it past the conference semifinals.

Orlando Magic (54.5) OVER: Wow, that's four overs in a row. I know we shouldn't take too much stock in what happened during the preseason, but if you kept up with it at all, then you probably noticed that Orlando pretty much destroyed every team it faced. I think they were plus-25 in scoring after six or seven games, which is ridiculous. I never was a fan of the swap of Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter, and I don't like the fact that they couldn't retain Matt Barnes, but they should still be really good. Dwight Howard is simply one-of-a-kind, and he erases many of the team's mistakes. Look for Mickael Pietrus to have a big season now that he doesn't have to split minutes with Barnes.

It will be interesting if the Heat and Magic meet in the playoffs. The Heat have the advantage at the 2, 3, and 4, but the Magic have the advantage at the 1 and 5. Plus, with a guy like Dwight Howard patrolling the lane, the Heat will have to sink jumpers, which is not LeBron's or D-Wade's strong suit. I think the Heat would win, but the Magic's size and depth in the post, plus their advantage at the point would make things tough on Miami.

Philadelphia 76ers (34.5) UNDER: This is another tough one. I like the 76ers and the direction in which they're headed, but they made a boneheaded mistake that will cost them: they passed on DeMarcus Cousins in the draft and instead took Evan Turner. The Sixers have a nice perimeter trio in place with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young, but their frontcourt is a mess. Elton Brand has not even come close to living up to his mega contract, and they swapped Samuel Dalembert for Spencer Hawes. Hawes is a nice shooter for a big, but that's about it. They also have Marreese Speights, who will probably end up being their best post player – which is probably not a good thing.

Back to Evan Turner. I declared in the weeks leading up to the 2010 draft that Evan Turner was overrated, that he was an awesome collegiate stat stuffer, but that he did not possess one skill in which he is excellent. He can handle, pass, rebound, and probably will become a nice defender, but he is not a great shooter despite the fact that he will play shooting guard in the NBA. Cousins, on the other hand, is HUGE, he will likely lead the league in rebounding at some point in his career, he has excellent hands, good court awareness, a soft touch, and a mean demeanor. I understand the reservations about his temper, but after watching him develop at Kentucky, I think it's all overblown. The Sixers will regret this pick, starting this year.

Phoenix Suns (41.5) UNDER: How much longer can Steve Nash play? His conditioning level and nutrition is as good as anyone’s, but I think he will miss playing pick-and-roll with Amare Stoudemire. I also think they’ll miss bench energy guy, Louis Amundson, who kept the intensity up with his defense and offensive rebounding. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns are sellers this year, and I think we will hear rumors (whether it happens or not) of Steve Nash and/or Grant Hill being moved for future draft picks.

Portland Trail Blazers (51.5) UNDER: Things appear (to me, at least) to be heading south in Portland. The owner is not happy, Brandon Roy is not happy, Greg Oden is not happy (at least, he’s always frowning), and Andre Miller is perpetually unhappy. I think LaMarcus Alderidge is happy enough, but he just hasn’t lived up to his enormous potential as a dominating power forward. I think they have just enough talent to sneak into the playoffs ahead of the Hornets because of their significant talent level, but the chemistry doesn’t seem right. I feel as if all of the personnel moves, injuries, and recent front office changes have left this team without an identity. They could be a lockdown defensive team, but some of the guys would have to check their egos if that were to work. They have the talent to win 55 games, but I picture them winning 48-49 games and grabbing the eight seed.

Sacramento Kings (27.5) OVER: This might be my sleeper team this year. As I’ve made clear, I have a man crush on DeMarcus Cousins. I think he’s a beast and a future all-star for many years to come. But everyone has a man crush on Tyreke Evans, so I’m not the only one. The guy is a freight train playing shooting guard, which is pretty unique. If this team ever gets a legitimate point guard, then watch out. They have slashers (Evans), shooters (Francisco Garcia, Donte Greene, Omri Casspi), bigs (Cousins, Samuel Dalembert, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry, Hassan Whiteside), and Beno Udrih – whatever he is. The Kings have a passionate fan base despite their recent struggles, and it’s always tough to win in Sacramento – even when they’re down. I’m not sure they’ll challenge for a playoff spot, but I have little doubt they will win 30 games, so 27.5 is an easy decision for me.

San Antonio Spurs (50.5) OVER: I can’t wait to see the mysterious Tiago Splitter in action. Splitter is considered one of the best non-American basketball players, so he should be a welcomed addition to the Spurs frontcourt, which is held down by Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, and DeJuan Blair. The perimeter trio of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Richard Jefferson is tough to top when healthy, and I like the addition of James Anderson from Oklahoma State to provide some bench scoring. Even though they are known for their lackadaisical approach to the regular season, they should still be a cinch to win 50-plus games.

Toronto Raptors (26.5) UNDER: How many wins do you think the worst team in the league will have this year? Fifteen? Twenty? Probably not 25. Whatever the number is, that is how many games the Raptors will win. Now that they are without Turkoglu and Bosh, I have a hard time envisioning many victories in this team’s immediate future. On paper, they are without a doubt the league’s worst team. On a bright note, I think they got a bargain in the draft when they took Ed Davis in the late lottery.

Utah Jazz (49.5) OVER: The Utah Jazz lack sex appeal, but they always seem to be a middle-of-the-pack playoff team, and I expect the same this year. Deron Williams is a top point guard, and I am intrigued by the replacement of Carlos Boozer with Al Jefferson – a much bigger and more physical presence on the low block. They still have Paul Millsap, and I like their Euro-style bigs in Mehmet Okur and Kyrylo Fesenko. They lost Kyle Korver to the Bulls and Wes Matthews to the Blazers, but they will replace them with super-white-man (and former tennis player), Gordon Hayward. This team won’t be flashy, but they will play defense, rebound, and not turn the ball over. Williams is good enough to set up his teammates for buckets when they need them, and they’ll continue to be what they always are: a solid 4-6 seed.

Washington Wizards (32.5) OVER: People seem to forget that Gilbert Arenas, despite his off-court blunders, is a really good basketball player. The guy can flat out score, and with John Wall penetrating and setting him up, he should get lots of chances. They have a couple of nice bigs in Andre Blatche and Javelle McGee, and Kirk Heinrich was a nice addition to add depth and a level head to their backcourt. If Josh Howard can regain his form of a couple of years ago when he was the Mavericks’ most explosive player, then the Wiz will likely be talking playoffs this spring. The big question is how good can Wall be in his rookie season? He has so many physical gifts; it will be interesting to see him develop this season and throughout his career.

That does it for the over/unders. Do yourself a favor this winter and watch a lot of basketball. This NBA season could be one of the most memorable that we’ve had in a while. I’ll leave you with my playoff picks:

East:

1. Miami Heat

2. Orlando Magic

3. Boston Celtics

4. Chicago Bulls

5. Atlanta Hawks

6. Milwaukee Bucks

7. New York Knicks

8. Washington Wizards

West:

1. Los Angeles Lakers

2. San Antonio Spurs

3. Dallas Mavericks

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

5. Utah Jazz

6. Houston Rockets

7. Memphis Grizzlies

8. Portland Trail Blazers

Blue Blindness 2011 NFL Forecast

2010-09-08T23:43:00.003-05:00

I'm back. It's been a couple of months, but during that time I have been pretty busy, while the sports world has been rather slow. I have also started a new job recently, so that has obviously occupied much of my time. But now I'm back in the captain's seat, ready to steer my big blue ship (with you aboard) out into the blue abyss of sports enlightenment. Well, maybe. I at least hope to offer an enjoyable read as I predict the record for each of the 32 NFL teams.

I should admit that several of my predictions turned out to surprise me. You see, I went through the NFL schedule week-by-week, rather than team-by-team, so I didn't know what record I had designated for a team until I added up all of the wins and losses at the end. As you will see, I have an inordinate amount of very good and really bad teams. The NFL is known for its parity, but I guess I'll just stay out on the limb I've put myself on and see how it goes. Although I was tempted to change a few teams' records by a game or two, I've decided to stick with my initial predictions -- for better or (more likely) for worse. But, hey ... at least my predictions are different. Let's get started:

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS

What I like: Their running game. They will control the clock with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'Ron McClain.

What I don't like: Their secondary. Ed Reed is on the PUP and they've had injury issues with their corners. This won't be your typical Ravens defense. The offense will have to step up.

PREDICTION: 11-5

CINCINNATI BENGALS

What I like: Their defense. They have a nice blend of young and old players, and they might have the best pair of corners in the league in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall.

What I don't like: Carson's knee. The Bengals need Carson to stay healthy if they're going to make another run at the AFC North title. Other than that, the Bengals don't have any real holes as long as they stay healthy.

PREDICTION: 10-6

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

What I like: The linebackers. The Steelers always seem to have the personnel to really get after the quarterback with their linebackers, and this year will be no different with Harrison, Woodley, Farrior, and Timmons.

What I don't like: Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for the first four games, so Dennis Dixon will have to lead them off to a good start.

PREDICTION: 9-7

CLEVELAND BROWNS

What I like: Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs. The Browns will be terrible, but these two guys can be game breakers.

What I don't like: The decision to bring in Jake Delhomme as the starting quarterback. After what he did last season in Carolina, I'm shocked that a team would hand him the keys to its offense. Maybe the Browns want to tank on purpose so that they can get a higher draft pick.

PREDICTION: 2-14

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

What I like: Besides Peyton Manning? I'll say the fact that Anthony Gonzalez is healthy again. The kid is talented, so I'll be interested to see if he can reclaim his starting spot from Pierre Garcon.

What I don't like: The offensive line. Ever since Tarik Glenn retired a couple of seasons ago, the Colts have been without a solid left tackle. With Jeff Saturday now ailing, I wonder if the Colts will have protection issues -- especially in a division in which the other teams have been collecting talented defensive linemen via the draft and free agency.

PREDICTION: 13-3

TENNESSEE TITANS

What I like: Vince Young and Chris Johnson. With VY coming into his own, the Titans should have its best offense since the Steve McNair MVP days.

What I don't like: The suspension of Gerald McRath for the first four games. The defensive line has been a pleasant surprise, but it is somewhat negated for the first quarter of the season due to the expected drop off in production from the linebackers while McRath is out.

PREDICTION: 12-4

HOUSTON TEXANS

What I like: The Texans' confidence. I get the feeling that the Texans believe they are going to be good this year, and that they are a legitimate playoff team.

What I don't like: The running game. A lot of people are high on Arian Foster, but I'm a skeptic. He might end up with decent stats, but can he get the tough yards when his team needs them in crunch time?

PREDICTION: 9-7

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

What I like: The fact that the front office stuck it to Gator fans by choosing Tyson Alualu instead of Tim Tebow. They probably did Tebow a favor. You know what they say about a prophet in his own town ...

What I don't like: The passing offense. I'm not sure David Garrard, Mike Sims-Walker, and Marcedes Lewis really scare anybody.

PREDICTION: 6-10

AFC EAST

NEW YORK JETS

What I like: The defense. All of it. With Revis under contract, the defense is going to be sick -- in a good way.

What I don't like: Sanchez's inexperience. Will he improve upon his respectable rookie season, or will he have a sophomore slump?

PREDICTION: 13-3

MIAMI DOLPHINS

What I like: The toughness of their skill position players. You won't find tougher running backs and receivers than Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Brandon Marshall. Too bad that Brown has injury issues, because he plays tough when he's out there.

What I don't like: The Chad Henne bandwagon. I'm sure he'll throw for a lot of yards, but will they be meaningful numbers? I feel like he might become a stat stuffer who doesn't really win much, a la Jake Plummer in his Arizona days. But there are worse things than that.

PREDICTION: 8-8

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

What I like: Tom Brady to Randy Moss appears to be on its way back.

What I don't like: Well, the schedule, for one. I think they have a really tough schedule. I also think their defense and their ability to run the ball are very suspect. I also know that the rest of the NFL would love to pile on the Pats if they appear to be vulnerable. Toss in the fact that Wes Welker is not himself and you get this:

PREDICTION: 6-10

BUFFALO BILLS

What I like: C.J. Spiller. Is he the next Chris Johnson? I doubt it. Johnson runs so effortlessly, while Spiller is a little heavier on the feet. I like Spiller a lot, though, just like pretty much everyone else.

What I don't like: Pretty much everything else. It's going to be a long season in Buffalo.

PREDICTION: 3-13

AFC WEST

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

What I like: Phillip Rivers. I think he's a jerk, especially his on-field demeanor, but I get the feeling that he's going to join the discussion of truly elite quarterbacks this season. They also have the easiest schedule in the history of the NFL. Probably.

What I don't like: The Lights Out dance. I'm talking to you, Shawne. I also don't like the absence of Marcus McNeil on the offensive line.

PREDICTION: 14-2

OAKLAND RAIDERS

What I like: The selection of Rolando McClain in this year's draft. I think he could have an impact similar to that of DeMeco Ryans of the Texans and Patrick Willis of the 49ers.

What I don't like: Jason Campbell as Team Savior. I mean, he's definitely better than JaMarcus Russell, but I've never really understood the fascination with Campbell. I think he's a serviceable starter, but I don't think of him as a potential franchise quarterback. It seems as if several talking heads do.

PREDICTION: 6-10

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

What I like: Dexter McCluster and Jamal Charles. A little undersized, but definitely one of the most explosive backfields in the league.

What I don't like: The waste of their recent high draft picks. Tyson Jackson, anyone? Derrick Johnson has also been a big disappointment.

PREDICTION: 5-11

DENVER BRONCOS

What I like: Other than all of the Kentucky linebackers? Well, I think Knowshon Moreno is a major talent -- when he's healthy.

What I don't like: The way Josh McDaniels has polarized his relationships with his players. I don't understand how a future with Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, Demaryius Thomas, Daniel Graham, and Spencer Larson is an upgrade over Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler, and Peyton Hillis.

PREDICTION: 4-12

NFC NORTH

GREEN BAY PACKERS

What I like: The offense. All of it. Except for maybe Ryan Grant. I think Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley will be very potent.

What I don't like: The front seven. It would be nice if Justin Harrell could stay healthy, but the front four just can't seem to get it together. I also can't believe A.J. Hawk is busting.

PREDICTION: 14-2

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

What I like: The return of E.J. Henderson. He plays linebacker like a lion. He's a lionbacker. Anyone? No?

What I don't like: Brett Favre. I just don't like him anymore. Plus his ankle could explode at any moment.

PREDICTION: 10-6

CHICAGO BEARS

What I like: Jay Cutler + Mike Martz. Toss in Devin Hester, and they should at least be fun to watch. If only they would use Garrett Wolfe a little more.

What I don't like: The decline of Matt Forte. If he reverts to rookie form, then the Bears could make life tough for Green Bay and Minnesota.

PREDICTION: 6-10

DETROIT LIONS

What I like: Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, and Brandon Pettigrew. The Lions have some nice young skill position players.

What I don't like: The decision to sign Kyle Vanden Bosch to a 4-year, what was it, 28 million dollar contract? Ouch. I know he's looked good in the preseason, but how will he look for the final 3 1/2 years of the deal? I love KVB, but I think he's done.

PREDICTION: 5-11

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA FALCONS

What I like: The offense. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, a slimmer Michael Turner, home games in a dome. They should put up points.

What I don't like: The fact that I only know about half the guys on their defense. Definitely a no-name bunch, but maybe they'll surprise.

PREDICTION: 13-3

CAROLINA PANTHERS

What I like: The running game. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both top-15 backs. I also like the fact that Matt Moore replaces Jake Delhomme. I think that is one of the most underrated upgrades of the NFL offseason.

What I don't like: Nothing. The Panthers are my sleeper team this year. I seriously like pretty much everything about this Panthers team. The loss of Julius Peppers is overblown.

PREDICTION: 12-4

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

What I like: Drew Brees and all of his weapons. He just takes his pick at this point.

What I don't like: I don't trust the defense to turn the ball over like it did last year. They also have a tougher schedule than Atlanta and Carolina.

PREDICTION: 10-6

TAMPA BAY BUCS

What I like: This is tough. How about rookie receiver, Mike Williams? He's a pleasant surprise.

What I don't like: Their overall lack of NFL talent. It's going to take another draft or two before the Bucs resemble a decent team.

PREDICTION: 2-14

NFC EAST

DALLAS COWBOYS

What I like: Felix Jones. If he can stay healthy, I think he could rush for 1500 yards. But that's a big if.

What I don't like: The overall chemistry of the team. I can't quite put my finger on it, but this version of the Cowboys seems a little stale. I still think they'll win the division, but I'm not sold on them as a Super Bowl team.

PREDICTION: 9-7

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

What I like: I'm not a big Donovan McNabb fan, but I think he's a huge upgrade over Jason Campbell. McNabb should be a huge spark for the Redskins.

What I don't like: The way Mike Shanahan has handled the Albert Haynesworth situation. Much like his successor in Denver, Josh McDaniels (which is a bit of a coincidence), Shanahan is having some difficulty in showing his players who is wearing the man pants. He needs to befriend Big Al, not alienate him.

PREDICTION: 8-8

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

What I like: Desean Jackson. I think he's the next Steve Smith (of the Panthers, that is).

What I don't like: The fascination with Kevin Kolb. He will put up better numbers than Jason Campbell, but like I said about Campbell, I think Kolb will be a serviceable starter, but probably not a franchise quarterback.

PREDICTION: 6-10

NEW YORK GIANTS

What I like: Justin Tuck. I think he has a chance to lead the NFL in sacks and make a push for defensive POY.

What I don't like: Their overrated defense. I read the other day that Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle could be the best safety tandem in the league. Really? Plus, they lost Antonio Pierce and picked up Keith Bulluck -- who is done. Even their first round pick, Jason Pierre-Paul, looks awful so far. I foresee dark waters ahead for the Giants.

PREDICTION: 6-10

AFC WEST

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

What I like: The defense. They're my number two defense this year, behind only the Jets.

What I don't like: The lack of hype they're receiving. I think they're going to walk through the NFC West and establish themselves as a top team in the league.

PREDICTION: 12-4

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

What I like: The reemergence of Mike Williams. The dude lost 40 lbs and looks as good as he did in his days at USC. Good for him. He was fun to watch in college, and then he started eating donuts.

What I don't like: The overall lack of explosiveness from the offense. Where are they going to get a big play? I don't think Hasselbeck and co. are good enough to march down the field consistently, so they need someone to step up to make big plays. Justin Forsett? I don't know.

PREDICTION: 5-11

ARIZONA CARDINALS

What I like: The defensive line, led by Darnell Dockett. I think they will be a nice unit.

What I don't like: The offense. Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower aren't going to scare anyone, and Larry Fitzgerald won't be as effective without Kurt Warner. Toss in the loss of Anquan Boldin, and you've got yourself one stale offense.

PREDICTION: 4-12

ST. LOUIS RAMS

What I like: Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, and A.J. Green. Can I go ahead and pencil Green as the next stud Rams wide receiver? So what if it won't happen until next year?

What I don't like: Chris Long. What a bust! Whiffing on a top pick hurts for a few years.

PREDICTION: 3-13

Super Bowl: Green Bay Packers over New York Jets

Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 4.0 ... The Final Installment

2010-06-24T15:43:00.002-05:00

All right, boys and girls, the NBA draft is upon us. Three hours from now, the Wizards will select John Wall to be their next point guard who gets to play cowboys and Indians with Gilbert Arenas (Javaris Crittenton previously filled that role). The 76ers and their new coach, Doug Collins, get the chance to pass on the best player available, DeMarcus Cousins, and instead play it safe by taking Evan Turner, a jack of many trades, but perhaps a master of none. The Nets seem destined to select Derrick Favors, who is not as good as Cousins, but might fit better next to their already-in-place center, Brook Lopez, so I won't be too critical. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are about to commit the ultimate NBA draft sin: drafting for need over talent in the top five. Barring a huge surprise, they will select Wesley Johnson, who is doubtful to ever become an all-star, over Cousins, who has the potential to become a perennial all-star. But that's what you do when you're the Timberwolves.

Without further ado, I present to you the final installment of Colten's NBA Mock Draft. May I be accurate AND precise ... however that may apply to mocking a draft.

1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky
The best player in the draft, Wall has the chance to be the rookie of the year, but also has the most upside. Look out for his new Reebok commercial tonight during the draft. Reebok will give Wall every chance to be for them what Michael and LeBron was/is for Nike.

2. Philadelphia 76ers: Evan Turner, SG/SF, Ohio State
I hate to back off of my trade projection between the Sixers and the Timberwolves, it appears as if it is not to be. All signs point to the Sixers passing on the unpolished Derrick Favors and the controversial DeMarcus Cousins. Often compared to Brandon Roy, I'm not sure it is a fair comparison for Turner since he is not the shooter that Roy is. Turner will be a good player, but I'm not sure he will be an all-star. Nothing against the guy, but I just don't see it.

3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech
With Brook Lopez firmly entrenched as the franchise center, the Nets will swing for the fences by taking the uber-athletic Favors. It might take a few years for him to put it all together, but he definitely has the physical tools to be a star.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Wesley Johnson, SG/SF, Syracuse
The Pistons will likely make a run for this pick, but I don't think they have the assets to get it done. Therefore, the Timberwolves will draft a guy who will fit in nicely beside Corey Brewer in Johnson, but he lacks the ball-handling and passing skills to be a star. He is a good outside shooter, which the Wolves will find handy, and he is an excellent athlete, but this pick should be DeMarcus Cousins.

5. Sacramento Kings: DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Kentucky
For the second year in a row, the Kings will get a top-2 kind of guy at the bottom of the top five. Last year, they grabbed Tyreke Evans at #4 and he turned out to be the ROY. I think Cousins has a chance to be the ROY this season.

6. Memphis Grizzlies (via Golden State): Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest
Someone has to go out on a limb, right? I think Golden State will try desperately to trade out of the six spot if the top five goes how I predicted. I think the Grizzlies will send O.J. Mayo and the #12 pick to Golden State in exchange for Monta Ellis and the #6 pick. I think the Griz are afraid that they have zero chance of re-signing Mayo when he becomes a FA in a couple of years, and Michael Heisley apparently has a love affair with Ellis, who is a Mississippi native. Mayo for Ellis rumors have gone on long enough. Just get it over with, already!

7. Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown
Monroe is not your typical, nasty Pistons big man, but he is the best big available, and the Pistons should be excited to get him instead of having to settle for Udoh, Davis, or Aldrich.

8. L.A. Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
White boys unite! The Clippers have a huge hole at SF, and that happens to be where the value lies. If they don't go with Hayward, they'll probably take Babbitt, George, Henry, or someone similar.

9. Utah Jazz: Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada
Babbitt just looks like a guy who should play for the Jazz. He's tall, white, and can shoot threes. With the potential loss of Kyle Korver, the Jazz could really use a tall dude who can stroke it from deep.

10. Indiana Pacers: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
The Pacers have a lot of needs, most notably in the backcourt, but the value just isn't there at the ten spot. The best player available is probably Ed Davis, so they go with him here.

11. New Orleans Hornets: Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Baylor
This is a tough call, but I'll go with Udoh, who played at nearby Baylor. The Hornets could really use another big man to go with Emeka Okafor.

12. Golden State Warriors (via Memphis): Paul George, SF, Fresno State
Who would you rather have? O.J. Mayo and Paul George or Monta Ellis and Al-Farouq Aminu? If this scenario plays out, then we'll have a chance to compare the pairs.

13. Toronto Raptors: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky
Rumors are swirling of Bledsoe to the Raptors. Is it legit interest, or is it posturing? I'm guessing it's legit interest, but I could definitely be wrong.

14. Houston Rockets: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas
I don't see the Rockets choosing anyone other than a center, so I think this comes down to Aldrich and Alabi, with Aldrich getting the nod.

15. Milwaukee Bucks: Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky
Perimeter help is not needed as much after the acquisitions of Corey Maggette and CDR, so I think the Bucks go with the best available PF, which would be Patterson.

16. Minnesota Timberwolves: Avery Bradley, Guard, Texas
The Wolves have point guards, and they have wings, but do they have a guy who can play both? I think not, so Bradley is a nice choice here. He's also good value.

17. Washington Wizards: Larry Sanders, PF, VCU
The Wizards landed this pick earlier today by acquiring Kirk Hinrich from the Bulls. I think they'll take a swing on local kid, Larry Sanders.

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky
Much has been made of the draft slide of Daniel Orton, but it stops here with OKC, who are very familiar with Orton, who is from OKC. Orton would fit in perfectly down low as a defender and shot blocker who won't be counted on to score much.

19. Boston Celtics: Xavier Henry, SF, Kansas
I'm reluctant to let Henry drop so low. He might end up with the Wizards at #17, but I'll keep him here as the heir-apparent to Paul Pierce.

20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas
The Texas kid just seems like a Spurs-type player. There are more talented guys left on the board, but the Spurs value defense, intensity, and rebounding, and James provides all of those.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Seraphin, PF, France
Look for the Thunder to take an international player to stash overseas. Seraphin is the best of the bunch.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Elliot Williams, Guard, Memphis
Chad Ford says the Blazers really like Daniel Orton and Elliot Williams at this spot, so, with Orton gone, Williams is the pick. Andre Miller is getting old, so Williams could become the PG of the future.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves: Craig Brackins, PF, Iowa
A mid-western boy for a mid-western team. The Wolves have a couple of bulky post players in Love and Jefferson, so they could use a guy who can run the court.

24. Atlanta Hawks: James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State
The Hawks need a scorer to come off the bench to help make up for the loss of Joe Johnson. Anderson doesn't have a ton of upside, but the kid can fill it up.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Terrico White, Guard, Ole Miss
The Griz could use another guard, and White is from Memphis, so I think the Griz would target him in this scenario. If he puts it together, White could be a steal.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder: Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall
The Thunder have several first round picks, and they already took Orton, so I think they might grab another big guy with upside as a backup plan. Who knows? Orton and Whiteside, if they both pan out, could be a formidable frontcourt.

27. New Jersey Nets: Jordan Crawford, SG, Xavier
Crawford replaces the recently-departed, Chris Douglas-Roberts. Crawford is smallish and doesn't have a great handle, but he could become a terrific scoring sixth man, a la Jason Terry.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: Jarvis Varnado, PF, Mississippi State
I know, I know, Varnado is not a first round guy. But Memphis could really use a backup PF who can defend and block shots, and Varnado fills that role to a T. Since they don't have a second round pick, I could see the Griz reaching for someone they really like at #28.

29. Orlando Magic: Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington
With the potential loss of Matt Barnes to FA, the Magic will probably go with a SF here. Of those remaining, Pondexter seems to be getting the best reviews. He can't shoot, but he can do just about everything else. Sounds kind of like Evan Turner, who will likely be the second pick of the draft.

30. Washington Wizards: Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State
They already have Andray Blatche, but Alabi is the best player available, so he gets to sneak into the first round. I can't believe he fell this far, but sometimes that just happens. Even if it's not Alabi, someone will surely free fall this year, just like in every draft.

Okay, that wraps things up. Here's to hoping that at least some of my picks are correct.

As always, please check out these other fine NBA draft sites:

Walter Football
Football Fan Spot
DC Pro Sports Report

What if our best athletes played soccer?

2010-06-22T19:30:00.002-05:00

I'll have my final NBA mock draft posted tomorrow night, so tonight I thought I'd do a short post based on a conversation among my friends from a few nights ago. With the World Cup in full swing, we were talking about the tournament and the U.S. team, and we started to wonder what our side would look like if our best athletes played soccer instead of football, basketball, baseball, etc. This created quite the debate and, in some cases, there really was no wrong answer.

Here is my "dream team," which will be utilizing a 4-4-2 alignment, just like the Americans:

DEFENSE

Adrian Peterson (RB, Vikings) - he would make an awesome outside defender. He is strong, tough, doesn't shy away from contact, and is incredibly fast, so no one would blow by him.

LeBron James (SF, Cavs) - I would put LeBron in the middle, kind of like how the U.S. uses Oguchi Onyewu. He would be there to clear out anything that goes up in the air. He might be a little too tall, but if anyone is athletic enough at his height, it's LeBron.

Derrick Rose (PG, Bulls) - Rose would play in the middle beside LeBron. Not only is Rose strong and quick, but he can jump out of the gym ... er, soccer stadium.

Darrell Revis (CB, Jets) - along with AP, Revis would play on the outside. Revis is the best cover corner in the NFL, so why can't he be the best outside defender in soccer? I think Revis would be awesome.

MIDFIELD

Dwayne Wade (SG, Heat) - Wade would be an outside midfielder. Could you imagine him and LeBron going up for headers on corners and set pieces?

Chris Paul (PG, Hornets) - Paul would play in the middle and be a distributor. There's no doubt that he would lead the team in assists.

Rajon Rondo (PG, Celtics) - Rondo would play alongside Paul in the middle. Rondo's freakish length and athleticism would be perfect for a soccer player. My friends and I all want to see Rondo create some sort of no-look ball fake/back door pass in soccer like he does in basketball.

John Wall (PG, Kentucky) - Wall is one of the sickest athletes in the world. I have no doubt that he would be a soccer rock star. That midfield is so stacked. Could you imagine these guys taking on the world? Ha!

FORWARDS

Chris Johnson (RB, Titans) - CJ would take his 4.24 40-yard dash and toast everybody about four times a game. He's another guy who I'd love to watch run around in the open field for 90 minutes. His gold teeth are just a bonus.

Desean Jackson (WR, Eagles) - another burner up front. I can't imagine another pair of strikers who would be as fast as CJ and Desean.

GOALIE

Andre Johnson (WR, Texans) - take your pick of the bigger NFL wide receivers. You could easily substitute Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, etc., but I like Andre Johnson. He is a sick athlete and has awesome hands. Plus, he's probably the most explosive of the bunch.

COACH

Ray Lewis (LB, Ravens) - the U.S. is known for its toughness (we don't sprawl around on the field after we get tapped on the toe), so Ray-Ray will keep it that way. I'm not sure if they would assign a little kid to hold his hand on the way out of the tunnel, but Ray will have his team "protecting the house."

Okay, so there you go. Who would you choose to be on the U.S. soccer dream team? No current soccer players allowed, by the way.

Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 3.0

2010-06-10T22:30:00.000-05:00

With the draft only a couple of weeks away, things are starting to take shape. Teams are inviting certain prospects for private workouts, so it's getting easier to predict which prospects a team likes and what position(s) they are looking at. We still must be careful, however, to distinguish between legitimate interest and smoke and mirrors. Case in point: the behavior of the Philadelphia 76ers.

Sitting at #2, the consensus player to fill that slot is Ohio State guard, Evan Turner. The Sixers, however, have a need for a big man, so word got out that they were looking at selecting Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins at #2. Since then, nothing but "Evan Turner, Evan Turner" has come from the Sixers brass. This makes perfect sense, because convincing other teams that they will select Turner is crucial if they wish to obtain maximum value in the event of a trade.

With that in mind, I present to you, Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 3.0. Feel free to compare it with Version 1.0 and Version 2.0.

1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky

The Wizards haven't confessed their intentions just yet, but Wall is the consensus top prospect in the draft, so he is the selection here. Wall also brings off-court charisma and a flashy style to the table, so he should thrive as the face of a big market franchise like Washington.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Philadelphia): Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State

Just like in Versions 1.0 and 2.0, I have the T'wolves trading up from #4 to #2 to select Turner. Philly will try to get Minnesota to take Elton Brand's contract off its hands, while Minnesota will offer its third first round pick, #23 overall, to Philly. I think they will meet in the middle, and Philly will settle for the #4 and #16 picks in exchange for the #2 pick. Turner should fit right in with the T'wolves current perimeter duo of Johnny Flynn and Corey Brewer.

3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech

Marc Stein of ESPN.com is reporting that the Nets have reached a verbal agreement with former Mavericks coach and current ESPN analyst, Avery Johnson to be its next head coach. If true, look for the Nets to possibly make a run at Dirk Nowitzki, who is expected to opt out of his contract with the Mavericks and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. Devin Harris might be the guy to benefit the most from this move, as he experienced tremendous success under the tutelage of Johnson while they were both in Dallas.

With or without Johnson and Dirk, I think Derrick Favors is the selection here. He and Cousins are the best players available, but I think Favors would fit in better next to Brook Lopez down low, so the Nets will go in that direction. I think Favors and Lopez could form the best young post duo in the league, which would make Nets fans very happy.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota): DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky

Many think DeMarcus Cousins has the talent to be in the running for the #1 overall pick, but maturity and conditioning concerns have him falling a few slots. As an avid UK fan who has watched Cousins play as much as anybody, I think these concerns are overblown, and teams that pass on him (other than the Wizards) will likely regret the decision shortly after. Cousins is young, huge, powerful, skilled, tough, and crafty -- all of which are terrific attributes for a big man prospect to have. I think Cousins will average 15+ ppg and 9+ rpg as a rookie and make a serious case for ROY. Additionally, he should fit right in with the rough and tough Philadelphia persona, much like Bill Lambeer in Detroit.

5. Sacramento Kings: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown

I had Al-Farouq Aminu in this slot in my first two mocks, but Greg Monroe's stock is on the rise and the Kings could use another big man, so he is the choice this time. Although the Kings could use a versatile perimeter defender and rebounder like Aminu, they are set to possibly lose Jon Brockman, Sean May, Spencer Hawes, and Carl Landry to free agency over the next two summers. Monroe has a higher ceiling than any of their current big men, and he would be a nice choice at #5.

6. Golden State Warriors: Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse

Players who love to run the floor, shoot threes, and throw down huge dunks on the fast break are perfect for Don Nelson's famed "Nelly Ball," and Wesley Johnson fits that description to a T. With the emergence of Stephen Curry and the fact that Montae Ellis and his moped are wearing out their welcome in Oakland, I could see the Warriors sliding Corey Maggette from the three to the two and inserting Johnson in his place. Plus, the Warriors might lose Anthony Morrow this summer as an RFA, so Johnson makes even more sense if that is the case.

7. Memphis Grizzlies (via Detroit Pistons): Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

If Favors, Cousins, and Monroe are all gone at this point, then I think Detroit will try to trade down. They'd love to move up to take one of those three, but with what assets? Tayshaun Prince's expiring contract? The value at #7 is at SF, but the Pistons are desperate for a center. If they can't find a partner, then they could be left to choose among Cole Aldrich, Daniel Orton, Ekpe Udoh, etc. That is why, if they're smart enough, the Grizzlies will capitalize on the opportunity to package a couple of its three first round picks and snag an elite player like Aminu.

The Pistons don't really need a SF since they already have Jonas Jerebko, Tayshaun Prince, Charlie Villanueva, Austin Daye, and DaJuan Summers serving as "big guys who can play on the perimeter." The Griz, however, might lose Rudy Gay to free agency this summer if a desperate team (like the Knicks or Nets, if they lose out in the LeBron sweepstakes) offers him a max-level contract. If this goes down, I think the Pistons will acquire the Grizzlies' #12 and #25 picks, and they'll take the best available big man at #12 -- possibly Cole Aldrich. In the end, I think this would be a terrific trade for both teams.

8. Los Angeles Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler

The Clippers could really use a SF to fit in between Eric Gordon and a healthy Blake Griffin. Hayward is unselfish, plays tough D, and can shoot threes. He isn't a flashy pick, but I think he's the right one for the Clippers.

9. Utah Jazz (via New York): Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada

I am torn between Patrick Patterson and Luke Babbitt here, but rumor has it the Jazz are infatuated with Babbitt, and have been for some time. With the looming free agencies of Wes Mathews and Kyle Korver, the Jazz will need someone to stretch the defense. On the other hand, Carlos Boozer is also expected to bolt to greener pastures this summer, so Patterson would certainly make sense here, too. But today, the pick is Babbitt.

10. Indiana Pacers: Avery Bradley, Guard, Texas

The Pacers are desperate for a playmaking guard, and Avery Bradley fits the description. There are questions about what his NBA position will be, but he should at the very least become a lock-down perimeter defender. If he really pans out, then he could become an improved version of Monta Ellis -- you know, the version that plays defense.

11. New Orleans Hornets: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky

The Hornets could really use a versatile big man to spell Emeka Okafor at center and David West at PF. Orton's combination of size, athleticism, and skill set makes him a better choice here than, say, Aldrich, Whiteside, or Udoh. Ed Davis makes sense here, too, but Orton's bulk and the fact that he projects well as a pick-and-roll player gives him the edge.

12. Detroit Pistons (via Memphis): Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas

See, I told you the Pistons might end up with Aldrich, anyway! Like I mentioned earlier, the Pistons are desperate for a center to replace Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown, and Aldrich should be a good start.

13. Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina

Chris Bosh hasn't ruled out a return to Toronto, but most people think that he's bolting this summer. If that is the case, then the Raptors will need a PF to fill the void. Ed Davis is no Bosh, but he is a good value and fills a big need.

14. Houston Rockets: Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall

Although I would love to put Ekpe Udoh (the local kid from Baylor) in this spot, I think the Rockets need a true center, rather than a PF/C hybrid, so the edge goes to the 7-footer, Whiteside. If Yao Ming is healthy, then the Rockets have a deep frontcourt consisting of Yao, Chuck Hayes, David Anderson, Luis Scola, Jordan Hill, and Jared Jeffries. Now, it's unlikely that all of these players will be on the Rockets' roster in 2010-2011, but they should still have enough depth that they can afford to draft for upside and bring him along slowly, so Whiteside makes sense in that regard.

15. Milwaukee Bucks (via Chicago): Xavier Henry, SG/SF, Kansas

The Bucks need to replace the outside shooting of Michael Redd and, maybe, John Salmons, so Xavier Henry would be a terrific fit here. The Bucks could also look at the upside of a guy like Paul George, or the high floor of a guy like James Anderson, but I think they'll get a little bit of both in Henry.

16. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota, from Charlotte): Paul George, SG/SF, Fresno State

With Cousins already on board, the Sixers can look to backcourt help. Paul George has the combination of size and athleticism to become a good starter in the NBA if he can develop a consistent jumper. At #16, he's definitely worth the risk.

17. Chicago Bulls (via Milwaukee): James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State

The Bulls never replaced the outside shooting of Ben Gordon when he left for big money in Detroit last summer. Anderson would be a welcomed edition in Chicago whether they land LeBron, D-Wade, or neither.

18. Miami Heat: Ekpe Udoh, PF, Baylor
The Heat could lose PG's Carlos Arroyo and Rafer Alston to free agency this summer, so Eric Bledsoe is a possibility here. However, they could have an even bigger gap to fill down low with the potential departures of Udonis Haslem, Jamaal Magloire, Jermaine O'Neal, and others, so I think Ekpe Udoh would be the choice in this scenario. Many experts expect Udoh to be a lottery pick, so this is good value for Miami.

19. Boston Celtics: Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State
If you are watching the NBA Finals, then you must have noticed by now that the Celtics are woefully undersized compared to the Lakers. Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom simply tower over Glenn Davis and Kendrick Perkins. The Celtics' tallest and longest players are Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace, but each is facing the twilight of his career and neither is as physically imposing as Alabi, who stands at 7'-1".

20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas
I was torn between putting Damion James or Eric Bledsoe here, but then a thought occurred to me and I decided on James. Just to make sure I wasn't out of line, I asked my brother (who happens to be sitting just a few feet from me) who he would take if he were the Spurs. He said, "James." I asked him why, wondering if he was thinking the same thing as me. "Bledsoe is too dumb to play for Popovich." My thinking, exactly.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky
The Thunder would be thrilled if Patterson were to fall this far. Unfortunately for Patterson, lots of teams need height and length, rather than versatility at the PF spot, so that is his reason for the fall. If the Pacers decide to deal Troy Murphy this summer, then Patterson has a chance to head to Indiana to play alongside Roy Hibbert, but for now he will have to drop to the Thunder. I think Patterson might actually start fairly soon for the Thunder, which would allow Jeff Green to be the sixth man and replace either the SF or PF -- kind of like what Lamar Odom does for the Lakers.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky
Andre Miller isn't getting any younger, and I doubt the Blazers believe Patrick Mills or Jerryd Bayless is the floor general of the future, so they hinge their hopes on Eric Bledsoe. He needs to learn to play under control, but Bledsoe has good upside and he would benefit from learning from Miller for a couple of years before taking the reins.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Larry Sanders, PF, VCU
Minnesota is expected to re-sign Darko Milicic, who complements Al Jefferson and Kevin Love down low, and they traded up to fill the void at SG, so they go with Larry Sanders here because of his intriguing upside and the fact that he is different from anyone they have on their roster. He would be a nice change of pace to the bulkier Jefferson and Love.

24. Atlanta Hawks: Willie Warren, Guard, Oklahoma
Joe Johnson is on his way out of Atlanta this summer, so the Hawks will need to draft a combo guard who can sub in for Mike Bibby or Jamal Crawford and provide scoring for the second unit. Enter Willie Warren. Warren has his maturity issues, but there is no denying his talent and scoring ability. At #24, he is worth the risk.

25. Detroit Pistons (via Memphis): Keith Gallon, PF, Oklahoma
The Pistons already drafted a center with its first pick, so now they add another big body who can also stretch the defense a little. Like his teammate, Warren, Gallon has some maturity questions and was caught up in an improper benefits scandal during his time at OU. However, Gallon has a rare combination of size and skill that would be very appealing to Detroit.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Phoenix): Jerome Jordan, C, Tulsa
Prior to the 2009-2010 college basketball season, Jerome Jordan was considered a potential lottery pick. Jordan did not live up to the hype, however, so most mock drafts are relegating him to the second round. Fortunately for Jordan, the Thunder could really use a center to compete with BJ Mullins for playing time, and all of the "first round" centers are gone, so Jordan gets the nod at the end of round one.

27. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas): Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington
Pondexter really showed his mettle this March in the NCAA Basketball Tournament by leading Washington to the Sweet 16. Pondexter is NBA-ready, and could see some decent minutes for the Nets as a rookie.

28. Memphis Grizzlies (via Los Angeles): Jarvis Varnado, PF, MSU
This is a little high for Varnado, but I just have a gut feeling about this one. The Grizzlies have shown a preference for local guys, because they think they will have a better chance of retaining them when they head to free agency (see their acquisition of Ronnie Brewer and their flirtations with Monta Ellis). Varnado played ball at nearby MSU, and he grew up in Tennessee, plus the Griz have a need for a backup PF who can play defense and block shots. Sounds kind of like Varnado, to me.

29. Orlando Magic: Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia
If the Magic lose Matt Barnes to free agency, then they will need another perimeter defender to spell Vince Carter at SG, Mickael Pietrus at SF, and Rashard Lewis at PF. Devin Ebanks just happens to be a guy who can guard all three of those positions, so I think he would be a nice choice for Orlando here. If he improves his offensive game, then Ebanks could eventually become a good starter in the NBA.

30. Washington Wizards (via Cleveland): Gani Lawal, PF, Georgia Tech
The Wizards selected the new face of their franchise, John Wall, with the first overall pick. To close out round one, I think they will look for a guy to bang around down low. Gani Lawal doesn't wow you with his physical attributes or his skills, but he plays hard and cleans the boards, and every team could use a guy like that. With the additions of Wall and Lawal, the Wizards get off to a good start on their rebuilding efforts.

As always, please be sure to check out these other fine mock drafts:

Walter Football
Football Fan Spot
DC Pro Sports Report

Braves back on top

2010-06-07T23:44:00.003-05:00

It's been a lean last few years, but the Braves are finally back atop the National League East, and it looks like they might try to stay there.

The Braves haven't led the division on June 7 since 2003, when their 41-19 record was tops in the MLB. The odd thing about the Braves' resurgence is that their stats aren't particularly impressive. Their .257 batting average is 18th in the Majors, and Chipper Jones, the team's best player for the last decade or so and face of the franchise, is currently on the DL and is batting only .240 -- .066 points below his career average. On top of that, rookie sensation Jason Heyward, who looked like the next Mickey Mantle early in the season, has cooled off and is batting only .266 with 10 home runs.

Instead, the resurgence has come from timely hitting, slightly above-average pitching and fielding, and, most of all, the emergence of Martin Prado and the re-establishment of Troy Glaus as one of the game's top sluggers. Despite owning only the NL's 10th best team batting average, the Braves have produced the third most runs in the league. Its .349 on-base percentage is number one in the NL, which is more a credit to patience in the batter's box moreso than raw slugging. The Braves have 40 more walks (261) than the second best NL team in that category (St. Louis), and they have the fourth fewest strikeouts.

As for Prado and Glaus, Prado's .325 BA leads the NL, and Glaus' 44 RBI is tied for first in the league, alongside St. Louis' Albert Pujols. Many consider Glaus to be the front-runner for NL Comeback POY, which is an Atlanta fans' offseason dream come true. The fact that Prado, Glaus, and Heyward have, to varying extents, panned out (especially with the struggles of Jones), has lifted the Braves to heights unseen for the last several years at this point in the season. Still, one must take into consideration the Phillies' injury situation with Jimmy Rollins missing the last 20 games or so, and their inability to manufacture runs during that span. At only two games back, it would be a surprise if the Phillies are not able to give Atlanta a serious run for its money when Rollins returns.

But for now, things are definitely looking up for Atlanta. They have a dependable lead-off hitter in Prado, an exciting up-and-comer in Heyward, a resurgent veteran in Glaus, a face of the franchise and clubhouse leader in Jones, and a proven manager in Bobby Cox. Toss in guys like Brian McCann and Eric Hinske who are batting well, along with pitchers Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hanson who have a combined record of 20-9, and you can see how the Braves are a team to watch out for in the fall.

Cox recently said the Braves still have a lot of room to improve. If they do, then Braves fans would certainly relish the chance to bid Cox a fond farewell this fall, in what could be a magical end to his final season.

2010 NBA Draft (Big) Blue Board

2010-06-03T13:32:00.004-05:00

Hello, kiddos. I'm back from a Memorial Day Weekend blogging hiatus to quench your thirst for more NBA draft info. Today's Blue Board is brought to you by MLB umpire, Jim Joyce, who successfully blew the call at first base in what would have been the final out of a perfect game pitched by Armando Galarraga of the Tigers. Ouch.

But life goes on, and so does our unveiling of the 2010 NBA Draft Blue Board.

1. John Wall, PG, Kentucky

The consensus #1 player in the draft. Has potential to become a transcendent star on and off the court. Kentucky fans want him to become for UK what MJ is for UNC.

2. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky

Attitude, shmatitude ... Cousins will be an all-star center in a couple of years -- especially if he ends up in the West. Cousins has elite size and elite skill, which is a very elite thing to claim. Plus, he's nasty.

3. Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech

A better athlete than Cousins, but raw and not as big. He could become the next Amare Stoudemire, but he has a long way to go on his perimeter game if he's going to get there.

4. Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State

A terrific ball handler for his size, and a crafty scorer despite not being a very good shooter. I'm curious to see how such a lithe fellow without a consistent jumper will hold up in the NBA. Turner needs to either improve his outside shot or add some bulk.

5. Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

Has a streaky jumper, but is terrific at just about everything else. Has the potential to become a defensive stopper in the NBA, and he should be able to rebound at a high level for a SF.

6. Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse

An excellent leaper and three point shooter who likes to run. I think he is a perfect match for the Warriors, so we'll see if he ends up playing for Nelly. I'm not sure he will be able to create his own shot at the next level, so he would benefit from playing in and up-and-down system.

7. Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown

Has good size and very good skill for a big. Is an excellent passer. Needs to learn to play the low post as well as he does the high post.

8. Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler

Former tennis player is a gamer. Can extend the defense with his perimeter shooting or take it to the rim off the dribble. Showed in the NCAA Tournament that he can be an excellent defender.

9. Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada

Has everything you want in an offensive-minded SF, but he struggles on defense due to his lack of lateral quickness. Will he be more like Chris Mullins or Adam Morrison?

10. Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky

Has good enough size, but is also long and athletic. Really improved his perimeter game last year at Kentucky, and already has an excellent low-post game. Shows good effort on defense, but just isn't that good at it.

11. Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Texas

I'm afraid to put Bradley this low, but I'm also afraid to put him this high. I'm really not sure how he'll do in the NBA, but he is a terrific athlete and will, at the least, be a spark off the bench who can lock down on defense.

12. Xavier Henry, SG/SF, Kansas

Smooth player who is more athletic than he appears, a la Paul Pierce. Has good height and bulk for a perimeter player, and he can stroke the three. If he played with more aggression, then I'd have him in the top ten.

13. Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina

Doesn't have terrific size for a post player, but is very athletic and long. A reliable 15-18 foot jumper would serve him well. Has the potential to be a top shot blocker.

14. Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky

Played sparingly last year at Kentucky behind Demarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson, but Orton is an elite-level shot blocker and has excellent bulk and length. Despite his underwhelming numbers last season, he should be drafted early due to his potential to be able to defend the other team's best post player without help.

15. Paul George, SG/SF, Fresno State

Terrific size and athleticism, but has never been able to put it all together. He supposedly has a great stroke, but he tends to leave it in the practice gym. He might come along slowly like Trevor Ariza, but eventually become a nice starting wing.

16. James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State

Anderson can flat-out score. He can shoot the lights out, but is also capable of taking it to the hole. I'm not sure he will hold up on the defensive end, but as far as scorers go, he's probably the best in the draft. He reminds me of a taller Jodie Meeks.

17. Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas

He will be a big body down low who can swat shots, but I'm not sold on him being an above-average starting center. He has a funny looking jumper, but he can knock them down from mid range.

18. Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky

I think it's funny how people call Bledsoe a combo guard, just because he played alongside John Wall at Kentucky. Make no mistake, Bledsoe will be a PG in the league, and a PG only.

19. Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Baylor

Udoh needs to add some bulk, but he is fairly skilled and can block shots. I wonder how he will do in man-to-man situations, though, and he can't camp out in the lane like he did at Baylor where he played in a 2-3. I think Udoh will be somewhat of a project.

20. Hassan Whiteside, PF/C, Marshall

Whiteside could end up being a top five player in this class, but it won't be anytime soon. Like Cousins, many think that Whiteside has some maturity issues. He is also very skinny, so he will need to bulk up if he's going to become an effective NBA-level post player.

21. Damion James, SF, Texas

James reminds me of a bigger version of Sam Young. Last year, Young fell all the way to the second round, despite having elite level athleticism, competitiveness, and being ready to contribute right away. The same thing could happen to James this year because he lacks a consistent jumper. I have a hunch that James will be one of the top rookies this year.

22. Larry Sanders, PF, VCU

Sanders is a project, but he is loaded with potential. He moves like a SF, but has the body of a PF. He's supposedly a shot blocking master, too.

23. Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington

Like so many other prospects, he has everything you want except for a consistent jumper. Pondexter will be a steal if he falls to round two.

24. Lance Stephenson, SF, Cincinnati

The New York all time leading scorer in high school, Stephenson can ball, yo. Too bad he has character issues. I think he could have been a top ten pick if he returned to school, but school was just not enough fun.

25. Willie Warren, PG/SG, Oklahoma

Warren has the talent to be a lottery pick, but he's kind of a punk. If he can screw his head on straight, then he could become a Ben Gordon-type.

26. Terrico White, PG/SG, Mississippi

Terrico is a sick athlete with some nice skills. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted by his hometown team, the Grizzlies, and perhaps usurp Mike Conley as the starting PG.

27. Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia

Like Aminu, has the size, athleticism, and length to become a shut-down defender. Needs work on his shot, but he is a quick leaper who should be a terrific rebounder at the next level.

28. Dominique Jones, SG, South Florida

Jones can fill it up, but is he undersized to be a starting SG in the NBA? He will have to prove that he can guard if he wants to be more than a spark off the bench.

29. Kevin Seraphin, PF, France

I've seen Seraphin play once, I think, in last year's Nike Hoops Summit, but he supposedly belongs in the first round, so here ya go.

30. Jordan Crawford, SG, Xavier

Two reasons why Crawford is included: First, he can fill it up in the clutch, as evidenced in the NCAA Tourney. Second, he is former Kentucky Wildcat, Joe Crawford's little brother. Crawford has "guy who doesn't play at all in game five of the playoffs, but comes in game six in a crunch and drops 20 as he leads his team to the series-clinching victory" written all over him. I can't wait to see him play.

Just missed the cut: Gani Lawal, Tiny Gallon, Jarvis Varnado, Solomon Alabi, Armon Johnson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins, Trevor Booker

Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 2.0

2010-05-26T19:36:00.004-05:00

Before we get started, let's take a look at a few draft-related developments that have occurred since I posted Version 1.0 eight days ago.

Evan Turner is no longer a lock for the #2 spot, according to ESPN's David Thorpe and Chad Ford. Way to jump on the bandwagon, guys.
Cole Aldrich's stock appears to be slipping, which is not a surprise. I was looking for a good excuse to move him down in V1.0 last week.
The jury is still out on DeMarcus Cousins. I've seen him as high as #2 and as low as #6. I went on the record last week and pegged him as the second best prospect in the draft.
It looks like NBA decision makers are falling for Paul George. Time will tell if this is good evaluating or a big mistake, but he seems destined for the lottery or shortly after.
Eric Bledsoe measured bigger than expected and did well at the combine, so his stock is on the rise. Should I give in and send him to the Heat like everyone else?
Patrick Patterson measured big at the combine and knocked people's socks off during the interview sessions, so his stock is on the rise.

Without further ado, I present to you Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 2.0. This one will be shorter than V1.0, I promise.

1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky

No change here. Wall is the consensus top prospect in the draft, and there are no red flags surrounding him. He will be the face of the franchise for the next decade-plus.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Philadelphia, via Charlotte): Evan Turner, SG, Ohio State

I hinted at this trade immediately following the lottery, but this week I'm brave enough to make it official. The Sixers already have a perimeter trio of Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, and Thaddeus Young (who I think should step into the starting SF spot), so Evan Turner wouldn't be the best value. The Sixers will try to convince the Timberwolves to take on Elton Brand's contract in this deal, but I'm guessing the Sixers will simply acquire Minnesota's second first round pick, #16 overall.

It is no secret that Minnesota covets Evan Turner, and he would fit in very nicely with Jonny Flynn and Corey Brewer on the perimeter. If this trade goes down, remember: You heard it here first!

3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech

In this scenario, this is probably an easy decision for the Nets. With Brook Lopez already on the roster, DeMarcus Cousins is ruled out, so Derrick Favors is the pick. Favors should immediately jump into the starting lineup and form the best young frontcourt tandom in the NBA, along with Lopez.

4. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota): DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky

By trading with Minnesota, the Sixers receive the #16 overall pick, but they still end up with the draft's #2 prospect. This is an excellent move for the Sixers. Don't be surprised if Cousins averages 14-plus points and 9-plus rebounds in his rookie campaign.

5. Sacramento Kings: Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

The gritty, aggressive Aminu gets the nod over the finesse guy, Wesley Johnson. The Kings need a perimeter defender who can slash to the basket and rebound, so Aminu fits the mold. Aminu has more upside than Johnson and Turner, so the Kings are happy to take him fifth.

6. Golden State Warriors: Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse

The Warriors need another perimeter player with size to spell Corey Maggette and eventually replace him. Johnson runs the floor like a gazelle, is a terrific outside shooter, and can finish well above the rim; all of these traits are perfect for Nelly Ball, so Johnson would be a terrific fit in Golden State.

7. Detroit Pistons: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown

Monroe measured bigger than expected at the combine, so the Pistons won't be afraid to take him over Cole Aldrich at #7. The Pistons are desperate for an anchor in the post, so Monroe is the pick here.

8. Los Angeles Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler

This is a tough one to forecast. I could see the Clippers selecting Hayward, Paul George, Xavier Henry, or Luke Babbitt, but I think Hayward will fit in best between Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin due to his consistent shooting, scrappy defense, and underrated athleticism. At 6'-8", he also has good size for a SF.

9. Utah Jazz (via New York): Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky

I'm reluctant to put Patterson this high, but I think he's the best fit for the Jazz in this scenario. Besides, Patterson measured taller than expected at the combine and was terrific in the interview sessions. Ideally, Greg Monroe falls here, but if not, then I think Patterson would be a terrific candidate to team with Paul Millsap as they try to replace Carlos Boozer's production at the four spot.

10. Indiana Pacers: Avery Bradley, Guard, Texas

The Pacers are desperate for a playmaking guard, and Bradley is one of the most explosive players in this year's class. He didn't consistently shine at Texas like many thought he would, but his upside is significant and he is already an outstanding perimeter defender.

11. New Orleans Hornets: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky

Orton is another player who gets mixed reviews, so it is tough to project where he lands. The Hornets need help down low, however, and Orton has the size and athleticism to excel in a pick-and-roll system with Chris Paul. He also has good shooting form, so he projects as a solid pick-and-pop option, as well. Add in the fact that he can guard NBA big men and block shots, and you have a guy who should end up in the lottery, despite his limited production in college.

12. Memphis Grizzlies: Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada

Rumor has it that the Grizz are head over heels in love with Babbitt, so they should be excited if he drops this far. Babbitt has the combination of size and shooting ability of a Chris Mullins, but he is not an explosive athlete, so there are doubts about his ability to defend on the perimeter. The Grizzlies need a three point shooter, though, so they'll happily take a guy who is 6'-9" and shoots 42% from downtown.

13. Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina

With the expected departure of Chris Bosh this summer, the Raptors will be looking for his replacement. Davis doesn't have the best size, but he is long and athletic with a good motor. Had he entered the draft last year, he probably would have been a top five pick, so the Raptors might be getting good value here.

14. Houston Rockets: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas

Aldrich would be a nice pickup here for the Rockets, who need a backup center for the oft-injured Yao Ming. He doesn't have great athleticism or skill, but he has enough of both, along with a propensity to block shots, that he is the pick here.

15. Milwaukee Bucks (via Chicago): Xavier Henry, SG, Kansas

With Michael Redd and John Salmons set to become UFA's this summer, the Bucks will probably look for help on the wings. Henry has a good stroke, and he can play the two or the three. He is also a better athlete than people give him credit for, much like another Kansas player, Paul Pierce.

16. Philadelphia 76ers (via Minnesota, via Charlotte): Paul George, SF, Fresno State

The Sixers already shored up their front court with DeMarcus Cousins, so they now look for help on the wings. With Thaddeus Young moving to the perimeter as a "big SF", they need a guy who is more perimeter-oriented. I considered James Anderson, but he is too much like another guy on their roster, Jodie Meeks, so Paul George is the selection here. George's stock is on the rise, so don't be surprised if he is gone by this point.

17. Chicago Bulls (via Milwaukee): James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State

The Bulls struggled to replace Ben Gordon's outside shooting when they let him bolt to Detroit as a FA last summer, so Anderson will be a welcomed addition to the Bulls perimeter squad.

18. Miami Heat: Ekpe Udoh, PF, Baylor

I'm tempted to give them Eric Bledsoe, but the Heat are desperate for help down low, so I think they will take the best available PF or C. Udoh isn't the best athlete, and he doesn't have the best size, but he is an excellent defender and shot blocker with a decent offensive game.

19. Boston Celtics: Lance Stephenson, SF, Cincinnati

This is probably the first real surprise of the draft, but with Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Tony Allen all set to become free agents this summer, the Celtics will probably be in need of a scorer on the wing. Stephenson is a bit of a controversial figure, but the kid has talent, so the Celtics could take a chance on him here.

20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas

The Spurs could use someone on the perimeter to guard the Rudy Gays and Trevor Arizas of the world, so the Spurs go with James, the Texas product.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky

The Thunder lack a true PG, and Bledsoe is probably the best player available here, so they take another uber-athlete to join Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kevin Durant.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Donatas Motiejunas, PF, Lithuania

With Joel Przybilla and Juwan Howard set to enter free agency this summer, the Blazers could use another big man. Motiejunas needs to add some bulk, but he is a good value at #22. Hassan Whiteside and Solomon Alabi are options here, as well, but they are too similar to Greg Oden. Motiejunas reminds a little of LaMarcus Aldridge, but I think they could be on the court at the same time.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State

Darko Milicic is set to become a UFA this summer, so they might be looking for a true center to replace him. I'm not crazy about Alabi, but I could be wrong. He would certainly fit in well with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, so he's a nice pick here.

24. Atlanta Hawks: Willie Warren, Guard, Oklahoma

Joe Johnson is expected to sign elsewhere this summer, so the Hawks could use a combo guard to provide some points off the bench as a backup to Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford. Like Ed Davis, I bet Warren wishes he entered the draft last year, when he likely would have been a top ten pick.

25. Memphis Grizzlies (via Denver): Terrico White, Guard, Ole Miss

The Grizzlies have shown a propensity to go after local kids, as displayed by their flirtation with Monta Ellis and their recent signing of Ronnie Brewer. White grew up in Memphis and played his college ball down the road at Ole Miss, plus he would provide some PG depth.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Phoenix): Hassan Whiteside, PF, Marshall

Despite his height, Whiteside is a bit of a finesse player more suited to play PF, so that is why I think he drops so low. I might change my mind before the draft, but for now the Thunder will be happy to take the best available big men remaining. As evidenced in the Lakers series, the Thunder might only be a big man away from doing big things.

27. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas): Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington

Not the best shooter in the world, but he does just about everything else really well. An experienced senior, Pondexter would have a chance to contribute right away, much like another former wing for the Huskies, Brandon Roy.

28. Memphis Grizzlies (via L.A. Lakers): Jarvis Varnado, PF, Mississippi State

The Grizzlies have a nice frontcourt trio of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Hasheem Thabeet, but they could use a defensive substitute for Randolph, and Varnado would be the perfect fit. Unlike Thabeet last year, Varnado will be ready to contribute right away.

29. Orlando Magic: Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia

Ebanks is a terrific athlete with excellent size for his position. He is a little raw offensively, but has the potential to improve. He also displayed a great work ethic under the coaching of Bob Huggins, and a willingness to commit himself to defense. With the looming free agency of Matt Barnes, Ebanks would be a nice addition to team with Mickael Pietrus at the three.

30. Washington Wizards (via Cleveland): Larry Sanders, PF, Virginia Commonwealth

Sanders is considered a project, but his upside is significant. He is listed at 6'-11", but he runs the floor like an athletic 6'-9" guy and he can block shots. I'm guessing the Wizards have seen Sanders play a lot since he is right down the road, so if anyone is familiar with the kid, it's probably the Wiz.

For more mock draft listings, check out these sites:

Walter Football

Football Fan Spot
DC Pro Sports Report

Suns vs Lakers, Arizona vs Aliens, Irony vs Coincidence

2010-05-24T15:21:00.011-05:00

Irony is a funny thing.

Now, what do I mean by that? Do I mean that irony is funny in a comical way, or do I mean that irony is funny in a curious way? Maybe I mean both. It certainly makes sense for me to say that irony is a comedic device. It also makes sense for me to say that irony is a curious thing.

"Well, why is it curious?" you ask.

Irony is curious because there are many different types of irony (e.g., verbal, dramatic, situational, etc.), and it is an oft-used figure of speech, but people misuse the word ALL THE TIME.

I think the biggest misuse of the word irony, is to describe something that is coincidental as being ironic. For instance, you probably know that the Los Angeles Lakers are in the middle of a playoff series against the Phoenix Suns. In fact, it's a really important series -- the NBA Western Conference Finals -- so lots of people are paying attention. You might also be aware that the hot political topic of the past month has been the Arizona immigration bill (Senate Bill 1070, a.k.a the "Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act"). Isn't it ironic that both of these events are taking place at the same time?

No. It is not ironic. It is coincidental!

Don't feel bad if you thought it was ironic. Lots of people mess this kind of stuff up. English is a tough language! We have all sorts of rhetorical devices that can be confusing.

Similar to the English language, politicians sometimes act in a confusing manner and, in Blue Blindness' opinion, the Arizona immigration issue has provided an opportunity for said politicians (along with media, celebrities, foreign leaders, and even Jim Bob from next door) to say certain things and behave in a certain manner as they oppose the bill, that could lead one to believe that these people might also struggle with the concept of irony.

As I pondered this idea, it occurred to me that this could be a golden blogging opportunity for me to address irony, along with other figures of speech, while also taking a look at the two coincidental events mentioned above. Therefore, I am pleased to present to you (with the help of an excellent article by Richard Nordquist) the "Top 20 Figures of Speech: Exemplified via the events pertaining to Lakers vs Suns and Senate Bill 1070."

20. Alliteration (ah-lit-err-RAY-shun): Repetition of an initial consonant sound.

Etymology: from the Latin, "putting letters together"

Example: In game three of the Western Conference Finals, Amare Stoudemire finally finds his fire and leads the Suns to victory with his energetic play.

This is not only a classic example of alliteration, but also a reminder to NBA observers that Stoudemire is a very talented, yet streaky player. If he tries, then the Suns are a top team and he can drop 42 points and 11 rebounds like he did to the Lakers in game three. If he is unassertive, however (like he was in games one and two, in which he tallied 41 total points and 9 total rebounds), then the Suns will put up a little bit of a fight, but will ultimately get handled.

19. Anaphora (ah-NAF-oh-rah): Repetition of the same word or phrase at the beginning of successive clauses or verses.

Etymology: from the Greek, "carrying back"

Example: If you are a Mexican living in Arizona, according to Obama, the police will deport you while you go out for an ice cream, they'll deport you while you are picking flowers, they'll deport you while you're driving to church, and they'll deport you while you are helping an old lady cross the street.

Okay, so he really only said the first one about the ice cream, but that is ridiculous enough, right? Had Obama actually read the bill, then he would have probably noticed the second paragraph on the first page (the entire bill is only 17 pages long). It reads:

For any LAWFUL contact made by a law enforcement official or agency of this state or a county, city, town, or other political subdivision of this state where REASONABLE SUSPICION exists that the person is an alien who is unlawfully present in the United States, a reasonable attempt shall be made, when practicable, to determine the immigration status of the person. The person's immigration status shall be verified with the federal government pursuant to 8 United States Code Section 1373 (c).

In other words, Arizona police officers are not authorized to simply snatch people off the street like a dog catcher. There are legal words still in play, like probable cause, reasonable suspicion, lawful contact, and police officers are not protected from lawsuits if they are judged to have acted in bad faith.

Fear not, legal citizens of Arizona! You will not be racially profiled as long as you are not a Mexican pulled over for speeding and your car smells like pot. Then, yeah, you might get deported if you're an illegal alien. Otherwise, you'll just go to jail.

18. Antithesis (an-TITH-uh-sis): The juxtaposition of contrasting ideas in balanced phrases.

Etymology: from the Greek, "opposition"

Example: He's a cold blooded killer and a cute little meerkitten.

Obviously, I'm referring to Steve Nash here. Nash is just one of those guys who reminds of a precious little animal. The two that come to mind for me are a meerkitten (is that what baby meerkats are called?) and my little Australian Shepherd, Sadie. Sadie is one of those dogs that will bat her eyelashes at you one second, and then, if you pick her up the wrong way, give you a little growl and show you her very sharp teeth (reminds a lot of this famous clip).

Nash is averaging about 14 points and 14 assists so far this series, but he's only 1-6 from 3pt, so don't be surprised to see some classic "Steve Nash dagger threes" in games four and five. He's let Derek Fisher hang around with him for the first three games, but I'll guarantee you that he's going to show D-Fish who his Canadian daddy is, win or lose, before this series is over.

17. Apostrophe (ah-POS-tro-fee): Breaking off discourse to address some absent person or thing, some abstract quality, an inanimate object, or a nonexistent character.

Etymology: from the Greek, "turning away"

Example: Hello, Lady Liberty. Please accept me from under the cut-out portion of your border fence. Grant me with life, liberty, and the pursuit of free education and healthcare even though I do not pay income tax or social security. Protect me from the evil police officers who would have me deported only because I am here illegally and have shown probable cause to be what I am -- an illegal alien. Whoa is me! Have pity on such a wretch!

No additional commentary needed.

16. Assonance (ASS-a-nins): Identity or similarity in sound between internal vowels in neighboring words.

Etymology: from the Latin, "sound"

Example: Kobe snakes his way down the court on the break, shaking defenders who are in his way.

Assonance is kind of a tough one. On one hand, you don't want to use excessive rhyming and make the sentence sound like a poem. On the other hand, you have to string together enough similar-sounding words so that it qualifies as a figure of speech.

Kobe is a lot like assonance. On one hand, he has to share the ball with his teammates enough that he's not considered a ball hog, and to make sure that the Lakers win. On the other hand, Kobe wants to take enough shots and have the ball in his hands enough so that everyone knows that he's still the man. Yeah, that seems like a good enough comparison to me.

15. Chiasmus (ki-AZ-mus): A verbal pattern in which the second half of an expression is balanced against the first but with the parts reversed.

Etymology: from the Greek, "mark with the letter X"

Example: Illegal immigration is a problem, but it is a problem to address illegal immigration.

This is Blue Blindness' favorite part of speech so far. It is straight, simple, clever, and to the point. It also has a cool-sounding name. Chiasmus!

14. Euphemism (YOO-fuh-miz-em): The substitution of an inoffensive term for one considered offensively explicit.

Etymology: from the Greek, "use of good words"

Example: Ron Artest is a free spirited person, huh?

You see, "free spirited" is a nice way of saying that Ron Artest is a crazy ###### ######. He's done a nice job knocking down open threes in this series, though -- actually, that is relative; he's 6-18, but he went 12-52 against OKC and Utah. He's not super-important in the Suns series, but the Lakers will need him to give Paul Pierce and Ray Allen a hard time if they advance to the NBA Finals.

13. Hyperbole (hi-PURR-buh-lee): An extravagant statement; the use of exaggerated terms for the purpose of emphasis or heightened effect.

Etymology: from the Greek, "excess"

Example: Phil Jackson has won a bajillion championships.

Actually, he's only won ten, but it might as well be a bajillion. I guess that's what happens when you coach Jordan, Pippen, Kobe, Gasol, Free Spirit Artest, etc. Well, Ron hasn't won one yet, but maybe he'll give Phil number bajillion and one this year.

12. Irony (I-ruh-nee): The use of words to convey the opposite of their literal meaning. A statement or situation where the meaning is contradicted by the appearance or presentation of the idea.

Etymology: from the Greek, "feigned ignorance"

Example: It is ironic that Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, Michael Posner, apologized to CHINA(!) for what he called a "troubling trend in our society, and an indication that we have to deal with issues of discrimination or potential discrimination. And these are issues very much being debated in our own society" (this is in reference to the Arizona bill).

So, not only is Washington publicly ridiculing Arizona for passing a bill that makes it easier for its policemen to enforce a preexisting law, they are now apologizing to Communist China (the worldwide leader in human oppression and disregard for life and liberties) for a human rights issue?

You can't get any more ironic (or moronic) than that. Maybe it's just a ploy to appease The Red Country and to buy some more time before they call in our debt.

To apologize to China for a human rights issue is akin to apologizing to France for acting too snobby, or like apologizing to Spain for being too laid back, or like apologizing to Canada for being too insignificant, or like apologizing to Mexico for deporting its illegal immigrants ... wait a sec. More on that later.

11. Litotes (LI-toe-teez): A figure of speech consisting of an understatement in which an affirmative is expressed by negating its opposite.

Etymology: from the Greek, "plainness, simplicity"

Example: Pau Gasol definitely does not look like a bird.

One of these days we're going to see Gasol sticking his head in the Gatorade cooler like an ostrich and not think anything of it.

10. Metaphor (MET-ah-for): A figure of speech in which an implied comparison is made between two unlike things that actually have something in common.

Etymology: from the Greek, "carry over"

Example: Three-pointers are the pretty girl at the dance who makes you feel good about yourself and makes you look cool until she ditches you for the quarterback and everyone thinks you're a loser again.

I feel like this is the story of Channing Frye. He came to the playoffs (the dance) with a pretty girl and was feeling good about himself, shooting 44% from 3pt for the regular season. Then, his girlfriend ditches him and he's stuck with Thelma, as he went 27% in the Portland series. His luck dramatically changed after he danced with Thelma, and the homecoming queen started flirting with him. Frye was the most popular kid in school as he helped shoot down the evil San Antonio Spurs with a 54.5% average for the series. But now the homecoming queen is gone and he's stuck with Thelma's ugly sister, Piggie, and he's down to 7%. Poor Channing.

9. Metonymy (me-TON-uh-me): A figure of speech in which one word or phrase is substituted for another with which it is closely associated; also, the rhetorical strategy of describing something indirectly by referring to things around it.

Etymology: from the Greek, "change of name"

Example: The zebras aren't calling many fouls on the Lakers this series.

Actually, that's just for the first two games. The Suns finally made it to the stripe in game three, so, naturally, they won. If Amare can keep taking it to the ostrich, then maybe he'll keep shooting lots of free throws and the Suns can even up the series.

8. Onomatopoeia (ON-a-MAT-a-PEE-a): The formation or use of words that imitate the sounds associated with the objects or actions they refer to.

Etymology: from the Latin, "make names"

Example: "Bang!" -- famously shouted by play-by-play man, Mike Breen, after made three pointers.

I guess a basketball doesn't really make a "bang" sound as it goes through the net, but you get the idea. You have to give Breen credit; he's a great banger (whoa!).

7. Oxymoron (ox-see-MOR-on): A figure of speech in which incongruous or contradictory terms appear side by side; a compressed paradox.

Etymology: from the Greek, "sharp-dull"

Example: Steve Nash and Derek Fisher are the youngest old-dudes ever.

Seriously, Fisher is cut up and probably in better shape than most of the 20 year olds in the league, despite being 35. I could see Fisher becoming the NBA's Chris Chelios. Nash, 36, is healthier than a vegetarian 15 year old cross country runner. The guy has pretty much eliminated his cane sugar intake and he mostly sticks to grilled fish and chicken and healthy-people cereal.

6. Paradox (PAR-a-dox): A statement that appears to contradict itself.

Etymology: from the Greek, "incredible, contrary to opinion or expectation"

Example: Sometimes, it seems as if the media can make heroes of aliens while alienating those who should be heroes.

It drives me nuts that the liberal media and even elected officials for the opposing party try to paint the picture of the poor, hardworking illegal alien while, at the same time, painting the picture of the big, bad police officer who is hunting for aliens to handcuff and toss out of the country without cause. Why is it such a bad thing to protect our borders and enforce laws that are already in place? Am I going crazy?

5. Personification (per-SON-if-i-KAY-shun): A figure of speech in which an inanimate object or abstraction is endowed with human qualities or abilities.

Etymology: N/A

Example: The men's orange "Viva Los 1070" shirts looked right back at the TV cameras from the front row of the arena, daring the producers to have security escort their wearers right out the door.

And so the producers obliged (or at least that is what most people think, even though no one will admit who's order it was). Here is the link to the story. A couple of guys wore the shirts in response to the Suns donning their "Los Suns" jerseys in support of the illegal immigrants living in Arizona. I'm sure the people of Arizona appreciated that (nope). This whole episode stoked the fire already burning between Arizona and southern California.

4. Pun (pun): A play on words, either on different senses of the same word or on the similar sense or sound of different words.

Etymology: Uncertain

Example: Arizona's utility commissioner shocks California with threat to shut down electric service.

Get it? Shock ... electricity ... haha! Man, I really need to cut down on the lengths of these columns. But if you haven't heard this story, then you need to check it out. This guy tells L.A. to put its money where its mouth is, regarding their boycott of Arizona.

3. Simile (SIM-i-lee): A figure of speech in which two fundamentally unlike things are explicitly compared, usually in a phrase introduced by like or as.

Etymology: from Latin, "likeness" or "comparison"

Example: Andrew Bynum is like a giant baby condor whose drunk-like flight induces sharp pains to Laker fans who hopelessly look on wondering what could have been.

I truly believe that Bynum is the most overrated big man in the NBA. He would be out of the league if he were 6'-10" or shorter. The man is not a basketball player; he has simply been blessed with DNA that made him a tall human being.

2. Synechdoche (si-NEK-di-key): A figure of speech in which a part is used to represent the whole, the whole for a part, the specific for the general, the general for the specific, or the material made for the thing made from it.

Etymology: from the Greek, "shared understanding"

Example: The Suns' bench has been underwhelming in the Lakers series.

In this example, "bench" represents all of the reserve players for the Suns. Yeah, it's a lame example, but I've typed a lot today.

Seriously, though, if Los Suns are going to pull El Upset, then they're going to need for Dudley, Dragic, Amundson, Barbosa, and the aforementioned Frye to step it on up and put up some big boy points. The Lakers bench is pretty terrible, so if the Suns let them outperform their bench, then they'll be done in five.

1. Understatement (UN-der-STATE-ment): A figure of speech in which a writer or speaker deliberately makes a situation seem less important or serious than it is.

Etymology: C'mon

Example (I have several examples for this one):

This article is pretty long.

I bet hardly anyone reads the entire post.

Colten's attempts at humor in this post were mostly ill-conceived.

Steve Nash is the man.

Illegal immigration is a problem.

That's all, folks.

Another credit to Mr. Richard Nordquist for his excellent article about figures of speech on grammar.about.com.

Terrence Jones to Kentucky! Best class ever?

2010-05-19T21:52:00.008-05:00

Oh, my goodness! With only a couple of hours remaining in the spring signing period, Terrence Jones has decommitted from Washington and will be a Kentucky Wildcat next season. If you have followed the recruitment of Jones, then all you can say at this point is, "Wow."

Jones, ranked #13 overall on the 2010 Rivals 150, is a skilled 6'-9" power forward from Portland, Ore. with a game often compared to that of Lamar Odom. Jones will instantly jump into the starting PF spot that I had penciled Eloy Vargas into a couple of days ago, and he is probably good enough that the Wildcats will not experience a drop-off in production from the power forward spot, even with the departure of Patrick Patterson.

In Blue Blindness' opinion, this development makes Kentucky a legitimate Final Four contender for the 2010-2011 season, and it also gives the Wildcats quite possibly (on paper, at least) the best recruiting class of all time. No joke.

Kentucky's recruiting class last year was argued by many experts to be either the best or second-best class ever, with the only competition coming from Michigan's Fab Five. Though this year's class lacks a talent like John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight and Enes Kanter are close, and the bottom of this year's class looks to be significantly better than last year's. Let's take a look at the two classes, according to Rivals.com rankings:

Kentucky's 2009 class:

#1: John Wall, PG

#2: DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C

#22: Daniel Orton, PF/C

#23: Eric Bledsoe, PG

#40: Jon Hood, SG/SF

UR: Darnell Dodson, SG/SF (he was unranked because he was a JUCO transfer, but Jerry Meyer had him pegged as being a high four-star prospect and would have been ranked around #40)

Kentucky's 2010 class:

#3: Enes Kanter, PF/C

#6: Brandon Knight, PG

#13: Terrence Jones, PF

#21: Doron Lamb, SG

#33: Stacey Poole, SG/SF

UR: Eloy Vargas, PF (like Dodson, Eloy Vargas is a JUCO transfer from Miami Dade CC; he was ranked #26 in 2008)

We will have to wait and see if any of the 2010 recruits end up becoming big stars like Wall or Cousins, or like Michigan's Chris Webber, Juwon Howard, and Jalen Rose, but I am confident in prognosticating that, top to bottom, the 2010 Kentucky recruiting class is stronger than last year's version. The scary thing is, Kentucky already has verbal commitments from the top two players in 2011, Mike Gilchrist and Marquis Teague. Those two are on the same level as Wall and Cousins from a talent standpoint. It is highly likely that Kentucky will have the top recruiting class in the country for three years in a row, and that each class is better than the last.

While Kentucky fans celebrate tonight, Washington fans are surely in mourning. Jones was slated to team up with Isaiah Thomas, Terrence Ross, and Abdul Gaddy to form quite a foursome for Lorenzo Romar's squad, which is coming off an impressive Sweet Sixteen run in this year's NCAA tournament. The Huskies' loss is the Wildcats' gain, however, and Kentucky certainly has the look, now, of a top five team. There will not be a more talented team in the country from an NBA prospect standpoint, and they should definitely be in the discussion of potential national champions, along with Duke, Michigan State, and Purdue.

For Kentucky fans who follow recruiting, May 19 will go down as the night when the 'Cats went from a top 15 team to a top five team in a matter of seconds. When the destinies of contending teams are placed in the hands of 17-18 year old kids, you're always in for a wild ride!

Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0

2010-05-18T19:43:00.018-05:00

The ping-pong balls have been sucked through the tube, the order has been set, and hearts have been broken (most notably, Mikahil Prokhorov's). The Wizards, not the Nets, will pick first in June's NBA draft, and they will undoubtedly select Kentucky PG, John Wall. Good for them. After the Gilbert Arenas debacle, the organization and city of DC could use some good sports news.

As for the rest of the teams, they're left with the scraps -- but that's not always a bad thing. Take last year, for example, when the Kings were the league's lousiest team. They ended up with the number four pick, which was the worst-possible scenario for them. But fortune turned out to be on their side, as Tyreke Evans fell into their laps at the four spot, and he has since been dubbed the NBA Rookie of the Year.

Other than the Nets, it was the Timberwolves who proved to be the unluckiest lottery team, falling from number two to number four. But like the Kings last year, maybe the Rookie of the Year will be waiting for them at number four.

So, without further ado, I present to you "Colten's (way too long) NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0." In this version, I will place more emphasis on personal opinion than on general consensus. As we get closer and closer to the draft, I will probably change my picks in accordance with what is most likely to happen, whether I agree with the pick or not.

1. Washington Wizards: John Wall, PG, Kentucky

This is definitely the easiest pick to forecast. Wall is the consensus top prospect in the draft, and he also has a good personality and plays with flair, making him the perfect pick for a team in need of a new image. The Wizards can either slide Gilbert Arenas over to the shooting guard spot, or they can get rid of him, altogether. It would be tough to trade Arenas' huge contract, and cutting him would mean taking a big cap hit, but there is a chance they could cut him and then go to arbitration to figure out if the locker room gun incident would allow them to get off the hook for a large portion of his bonus money.

2. Philadelphia 76ers: DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Kentucky

Most people have Evan Turner in this slot, and that could very well end up being the Sixers' pick, but I have thought for some time now that Cousins is the second best talent in the draft, so he is the pick here. Cousins would be an immediate upgrade over Samuel Dalembert (who will be an unrestricted FA in 2011), and it would allow the Sixers to keep their young 1-3 core of Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodola, and Thaddeus Young intact. I honestly don't think Turner would be much of an upgrade over AI or Young, so Cousins makes a lot of sense here. Plus, I have a feeling that Philly fans will embrace Cousins' perceived tough-guy (sometimes immature) attitude and his propensity for bullying people around down low.

In my opinion, Cousins projects as a terrific NBA post player due to his huge frame, soft touch around the basket, unconscious rebounding rate, and the likelihood that defensive three seconds, the restricted area, and solid outside shooting (at least better than what he had at Kentucky) to keep the defense spread out will help him continue to be the beast that Kentucky fans witnessed last year.

As an additional note, don't be surprised if the Sixers deal this pick to the Timberwolves on draft night. The T'Wolves have three first round picks, and the Sixers might think they can pick up one of those picks and still get Cousins at number four. It's hard to see the Nets taking Cousins at number three when they already have Brook Lopez. If this scenario goes down, remember you heard it here first!

3. New Jersey Nets: Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech

While Nets fans are surely peeved that they had the best chance of all the lottery teams to win the John Wall sweepstakes, Derrick Favors would be a very nice consolation prize. Again, most experts would have Evan Turner long gone by now, but I think Favors is just as good of a prospect, and he fills a more pressing need for the Nets. Pairing Favors with Brook Lopez would give the Nets the most talented young frontcourt in the league. Lopez is a big, skilled center, who is quickly emerging as the best all-around center in the league (especially since Yao Ming has battled so many injuries). Favors is less skilled and not as big as Lopez, but he is the more explosive athlete and projects as an Amare Stoudemire-type player.

On the other hand, Turner would likely be a nice upgrade over Courtney Lee or Terrence Williams, but players like Favors are harder to come by than a guy like Turner. Plus, the Nets have a ton of cap space and will likely end up with a top free agent who can bolster the backcourt. Joe Johnson, anyone?

4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Evan Turner, PG/SG/SF, Ohio State

See, I told you that the four spot wasn't all that bad! Evan Turner would be a fantastic fit for the T'Wolves. They have a couple of young point guards in Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio (if he ever makes his way to the NBA), and they have a couple of good post players in Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. They could also re-sign Darko Milicic who, apparently, enjoyed a bit of success last year playing in a three man post rotation along with Love and Jefferson. Corey Brewer is starting to emerge on the wing, but the T'Wolves could really use a playmaking, do-it-all shooting guard like Turner to accompany him.

I know that Minnesota is not a sexy landing spot, and I'm sure Turner would like to be a top two pick, but this scenario might end up being the best case for both Turner and the T'Wolves. We'll have to wait until June to see if it happens.

5. Sacramento Kings: Al-Farouq Aminu, SF, Wake Forest

Once again, I'm straying from the consensus (which would be Wesley Johnson) and going with my gut. Al-Farouq Aminu has the potential to be the best wing out of this class (that includes Turner and Johnson) thanks to his freakish combination of size, length, and athleticism. Johnson is the better leaper and better shooter, and is a freak of nature in his own right, but Aminu is an extremely fluid athlete who has better height and bulk. He can already rebound extremely well for a small forward, and his defensive upside is off the charts. If he improves his ball handling and perimeter stroke (which he should, since he has good mechanics and is only 19 years old, compared to Johnson, who is 22), then Aminu could become a future all-star ... at least, in my humble opinion.

Another reason the Kings might go with Aminu is because they already have a couple of guys on their roster who like to jack three-bombs like Johnson -- Francisco Garcia and Donte Green. I think a defender/rebounder type would fit in better with what the Kings need.

6. Golden State Warriors: Wesley Johnson, SF, Syracuse

The Warriors would be ecstatic if Johnson fell this far. He would immediately fill the void left by Anthony Morrow, should the free agency winds take him to another team, and he could give the Warriors some flexibility at the three spot, which is currently held down by Corey Maggette. Johnson fits the mold of a Nelly-ball player in that he can run the floor like a gazelle, he can shoot the trey, and he can finish above the rim on the fast break. While the Warriors could also use some front court depth, I think they would go with Johnson in this scenario and see if guys like Anthony Randolph and Brandon Wright can live up to their potential.

7. Detroit Pistons: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas

This is another team that I could definitely see trying to trade down. Aldrich is a significant drop-off in talent from the top six players, and I'm not sure the Pistons will see the value of taking Aldrich here. However, they have to take someone in this mock draft, so I envision them taking a big-bodied post player to replace UFA's Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox, and Kwame Brown. The two best candidates are Cole Aldrich and Daniel Orton, but Aldrich is the more polished product, so he gets the nod here.

Although Aldrich will probably never become an all-star, he is a big body who is a decent rebounder, but a very good shot blocker. He is fairly skilled for a big man, showing the ability to knock down mid range jumpers and pass out of double teams while he was at Kansas. Aldrich is a tough player, so that will set well with the blue collar fans of Detroit. All in all, this isn't a bad pick for Detroit in this situation.

8. Los Angeles Clippers: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler

The Clippers are another team who will be shopping their pick. Hayward is obviously a very good player, as evidenced by his NCAA Tournament performance last year, but I'm not sure he's worth the number eight pick. The value here is with big men like Ed Davis, Greg Monroe, Ekpe Udoh, etc., but the Clippers have an abundance of solid big men like Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Sure, Monroe or Davis would be an upgrade over Craig Smith or Drew Gooden at the backup PF spot, but there is no reason to spend the eighth overall pick on a backup PF, especially after drafting Blake Griffin number one overall last year.

If they are able to trade down, they might also look at a point guard like Eric Bledsoe to groom behind Baron Davis, but I think SF is the position they key in on -- especially if they can't land LeBron, Joe Johnson, or Rudy Gay in free agency. Other SF possibilities are Paul George and Luke Babbitt.

9. Utah Jazz (via NY Knicks): Greg Monroe, PF/C, Georgetown

The Jazz are set to lose Carlos Boozer to free agency this summer, but the Jazz shouldn't worry. They have Paul Millsap waiting in the wings to fill the vacant PF spot, and Mehmet Okur is a solid starting C who can knock down threes like they're free throws. Monroe is the most skilled post player in this year's draft, which is perfect for Jerry Sloan's pick-and-roll-oriented, half court offense. Monroe would immediately jump in as the first big off the bench, and would become the Jazz's PF or C of the future. This would be a great pick for the Jazz.

10. Indiana Pacers: Avery Bradley, PG/SG, Texas

The Pacers desperately need a playmaker in the backcourt. They were hoping for a lottery miracle so they could steal John Wall, but he'll be long gone when the Pacers make their pick at number ten. That means Avery Bradley will have to suffice. Bradley, not Wall, was ESPN's top ranked recruit coming out of high school a year ago (although sites like Rivals.com and Scout.com are usually much better at the ranking game), so Bradley is a big time player in his own right. I think Bradley's stock will increase during the pre-draft camps, so even though this seems high right now, I don't think this will be a reach at all come June. Bradley reminds me of a Jerryd Bayless/Monta Ellis type of combo guard who is an explosive athlete and can create for himself and others. While he is kind of a tweener without a true position, players like Bradley have value because of their elite athleticism. Bradley also has a reputation as a terrific perimeter defender, probably the best in this year's class, so that is another benefit he will provide. If he can improve his range on his jump shot, then Bradley is a potential stud.

11. New Orleans Hornets: Daniel Orton, PF/C, Kentucky

The Hornets have to be pleasantly surprised with their picks last year -- Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton. Add that to the return of a healthy Chris Paul, and you have the makings of a very nice backcourt. The frontcourt, however, could use a big man to backup Emeka Okafor and also be able to step in for David West, so Daniel Orton seems like the logical choice. Orton has the size to defend the PF or C, and that trait separates him from Ekpe Udoh and Ed Davis. Though Orton didn't put up big stats in his limited minutes last year for Kentucky, he projects as a solid defender, shot blocker, rebounder, and finisher at the next level. He needs to polish his offensive game, but Orton is an explosive athlete who could surprise some people and contribute right away -- that is, assuming he can stay out of foul trouble.

12. Memphis Grizzlies: Luke Babbitt, SF, Nevada

The Grizzlies' biggest weakness (other than, perhaps, PG) is three point shooting. Luke Babbitt would seem like a good choice to address that issue, as he shot 43% from three as a freshman at Nevada, and 41% as a sophomore. Standing at 6'-9", he has great size for an NBA SF, but he lacks the athleticism to be an effective defender on the perimeter. It might be worth the risk, though, since some people think Babbitt could become the next Chris Mullins. It is also worth noting that Rudy Gay will be a RFA this summer, and, although the Grizzlies front office is saying that they will match almost any offer Rudy receives, Babbitt would be good insurance.

13. Toronto Raptors: Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina

The bad news: It looks like Chris Bosh is on his way out of Toronto this summer and on to greener pastures. The good news: "Colten's NBA Mock Draft: Version 1.0" has Ed Davis falling all the way to number 13. Davis is a nice prospect who would have been a top five pick had he come out after his freshman year. Injuries and a poor showing as a sophomore, however, have dropped his stock all the way to the mid to late lottery, so he might find himself freezing his butt off in Toronto for the next 4-5 years. Davis is not a very skilled offensive player, but he is an excellent defender and shot blocker and he has terrific athleticism. He's no Chris Bosh, but he's the best option for the Raptors at this point.

14. Houston Rockets: Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall

We are ... the Houston Rockets! So, what do you get when Yao Ming misses the entire 2009-2010 season? If you guessed "Chuck Hayes starting at center," then you are CORRECT! Now, I love Chuck Hayes, and he is definitely an NBA-caliber player; but when you have a 6'-6" guy starting at C, then you know you need some help down low. Hassan Whiteside stormed onto the college scene as a freshman at Marshall where he averaged 13 pts, 9 reb, and 5.5 blk in 26 mpg. The 6'-11" shot blocker would provide some excellent depth down low for the Rockets, who have been haunted by injuries to their star players for the last several years. If the pick is not Whiteside, then I'd bet on Ekpe Udoh.

15. Milwaukee Bucks: Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky

The Bucks have a playmaking PG in Brandon Jennings and a good, young C in Andrew Bogut, but that's about where it ends. John Salmons is a nice piece, and I'm sure the Bucks will try to retain him, but he is expected to opt out of his contract and become a FA this summer. Assuming the Bucks bring him back, they could really use an upgrade at PF (currently held down by Luc Richard Mbah a Moute), and Patrick Patterson would fit in nicely beside Bogut. Patterson is a little undersized for an NBA PF, but he is an excellent athlete who rebounds well for his size and he is able to step out and hit long jumpers. Patterson has a terrific motor and will definitely be a fan favorite wherever he ends up.

16. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Charlotte): Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Baylor

The T'Wolves plugged a backcourt hole at the four spot with Evan Turner, so now they turn their attention to a backup post player who can block shots. Ekpe Udoh fits the mold, so they are thrilled that he drops down to number 15. He is also a nice contrast to the bulkier PF's already on their roster, like Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. Udoh would provide a good spark off the bench by using his energy and athleticism to help carry the T'Wolves' second unit.

17. Chicago Bulls (via Milwaukee): James Anderson, SG, Oklahoma State

The Bulls have a nice young duo of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah, and Taj Gibson is showing nice improvement at the four, but the Bulls lack a true SG who can stretch the floor and allow spacing for Rose to penetrate. James Anderson would be a terrific fit here. His long range shooting ability, along with his ability to penetrate the lane, would be a welcome addition to the Bulls backcourt. As an added bonus, Anderson would be a terrific wingman for a guy like LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, and the Bulls are hoping to land one of them this summer in free agency.

18. Miami Heat: Solomon Alabi, C, Florida State

I've seen a lot of mock drafts that have Eric Bledsoe going here. While that might be the case, I think they'll stick with Mario Chalmers for another year and address the gaping hole in the post. Jermaine O'Neal, Udonis Haslem, and Jamaal Magloire will all be UFA's this summer, so the Heat will need to bring in a young anchor in the post. They will look right up the road to Tallahassee and see 7'-1" Solomon Alabi staring right back at them. Even though that is a creepy visual, the Heat will still draft him and be happy that they have a huge shot blocker who could end up being the next Hasheem Thabeet -- except hopefully not ending up in the D-League for an extended amount of time.

19. Boston Celtics: Xavier Henry, SG/SF, Kansas

I've always thought Xavier Henry's game was a lot like Paul Pierce's, so this is a nice match. The Celtics need a good perimeter player to come off the bench and not be afraid to knock down some shots. Henry will do just that. I think Henry would be a terrific value pick at number 19, and he should be able to contribute right away, despite the fact that he's a one-and-done. He has a very strong build, but a very smooth game. I also think he is a little bit more athletic than people give him credit for, kind of like Paul Pierce. His game should mesh well with Rajon Rondo's, so Henry will have the chance to become the Celtics' SG or SF of the future.

20. San Antonio Spurs: Damion James, SF, Texas

The Spurs are getting old, fast. I could see them going in a number of different directions with this pick, but I think Damion James is a good fit. James is a terrific athlete with toughness. He dramatically improved his outside shot this year in college, and he is an excellent defender and rebounder. I think James could be a valuable asset for the Spurs as a guy who can come off the bench and defend the other team's best perimeter player, especially larger perimeter players like Rudy Gay and Trevor Ariza, both of whom are in the Spurs' division. I wonder how long the Spurs can continue their playoff ways. I think they might end up in the lottery next year, but we'll see.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky

I know, I know, the Thunder already have Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor on their roster. So why Eric Bledsoe? Well, neither Westbrook nor Maynor is a true PG, and I think every NBA team should have a true PG on its roster. Bledsoe has often been compared to Westbrook, but I'm not sure that is a great comparison. Athletically, yes, Bledsoe is Westbrook's equal, but he doesn't have the size that Westbrook possesses, and their games are a little different. Bledsoe possesses tremendous upside as a traditional point guard who will look to set up his teammates more than the ever-attacking Westbrook or jump-shooting Maynor. Bledsoe doesn't have the highest basketball IQ yet, but he is tough, athletic, and confident, and could become a valuable contributor and maybe a very nice trade asset in a couple of years.

22. Portland Trail Blazers: Paul George, SF, Fresno State

Portland is known for going for the best player available, so the slip of Paul George stops here. The Blazers already have Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster at the three spot, but George is an intriguing prospect with a ton of upside. A big, athletic SF with a nice stroke, George is often compared to Trevor Ariza. The downside is that he is very raw and didn't dominate in college, so he might have to ride the pine for a couple of years before the Blazers' investment pays off.

23. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah): Donatas Motiejunas, PF/C, Lithuania

Like I mentioned earlier, the T'Wolves might shop this pick to move up to take Evan Turner. If not, then they'll probably take the best available international player to store overseas for a couple of years. Unlike the Ricky Rubio situation, however, they might actually do this on purpose. Motiejunas has been compared to Dirk Nowitzki and Andrea Bargnani, so he's definitely worth the investment at number 23.

24. Atlanta Hawks: Willie Warren, PG/SG, Oklahoma

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. For those who thought Eric Bledsoe should have returned to school for his sophomore year, look no further than Willie Warren as a prime example of why he should get while the gettin's good. Warren is not a true PG, but he can score and is a good athlete. With the likely departure of Joe Johnson, I can envision Jamal Crawford stepping into the starting role and Warren would have a chance to be the first guard off the bench and provide some scoring. This could prove to be a steal for Atlanta. Is it just me, or does Warren just seem like a Hawk's player?

25. Memphis Grizzlies (via Denver): Terrico White, PG/SG, Mississippi

In a draft with very few options at PG, Terrico White, the Memphis native, gets to come home and play in front of his family and friends. Ole Miss is also right down the road from Memphis, so he will have his high school and collegiate fans supporting him at the FedEx Forum. White might be an especially good fit for the Grizzlies because if he is able to win the starting PG job at some point, then it could lead to slightly higher ticket sales -- and we all know that the Grizzlies need some help in that department.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Phoenix): Kevin Seraphin, PF, France

The Thunder could end up choosing among several power forwards in this spot, including: Kevin Seraphin, Craig Brackins, Larry Sanders, and Keith "Tiny" Gallon. I'll give the edge to Seraphin, though, due to the fact that the Thunder can stash him overseas for a while if they'd like. You could make the argument for Gallon, who played his college ball at Oklahoma, but keep in mind that he is the player who accepted cash while he was being recruited to play there, thus putting OU on probation. I'm not sure he'd be the local fan favorite-type.

27. New Jersey Nets (via Dallas): Quincy Pondexter, SF, Washington

I think the Nets will look for the best PG or SF available at this spot, so I'm going with Quincy Pondexter. He doesn't have the best jump shot, but Pondexter showed his explosive scoring ability and overall game when he led Washington to the Sweet Sixteen last year before losing to West Virginia. Terrence Williams was underwhelming in his rookie campaign, so Pondexter should be able to compete for a starting spot at some point this season. Even if the Nets don't land a top FA this summer, a lineup of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Quincy Pondexter, Derrick Favors, and Brook Lopez is about a million times better than what they put on the floor this season.

28. Memphis Grizzlies (via Lakers): Jarvis Varnado, PF, Mississippi State

This is the spot where the Grizzlies would like to take a foreign project-type who they could stash overseas, but I'm not sure the value is there, so they go with a shot blocking PF in Jarvis Varnado. The Grizz have a nice frontcourt of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Hasheem Thabeet, but Varnado would be able to carve a niche as a defensive substitute for Randolph. This might seem a little high for Varnado, but the Grizz don't have a second round pick, and Varnado would fit in nicely.

29. Orlando Magic: Devin Ebanks, SF, West Virginia

Matt Barnes is the Magic's best perimeter defender, but he will be a FA this summer, so they will need a versatile perimeter defender to step in. Devin Ebanks could be that guy. Ebanks guarded the opponent's best player this year while at WVU, whether it was a PG, SG, SF, or PF. Ebanks is a long, explosive athlete with an excellent work ethic and defensive instincts. If he can improve his offensive game, then he would be quite a steal at number 29.

30. Washington Wizards (via Cleveland): Larry Sanders, PF, VCU

The Wizards started the first round by taking John Wall, and they'll wrap things up by taking a big man from right down the road, VCU's Larry Sanders. He is a bit raw, but Sanders has high level athleticism for a PF and he is a very good shot blocker. He may take some time to develop, but the local product could pay off down the road.

If you want to compare my mock draft with some others, then check out WalterFootball.com's NBA mock draft and mock draft database and FootballFanSpot's NBA mock draft and mock draft database, in which this mock draft is included. Whoo! That's a lot of times to say mock draft!

Friday Night Lies: The story of Guerdwich Montimere

2010-05-17T00:50:00.000-05:00

Sports are fun. I like sports, you like sports, Obama likes sports ... most everyone likes sports. We like to play sports and we like to talk about sports. We like to watch sports in person, and we like to watch sports on TV. We like to play sports video games. Most of us would play sports in a box, with a fox, in a boat ... well, you get the idea. The point is, lots of people really like sports. My friends and family might suggest that I am obsessed with sports, and it would be hard for me to argue with them. But I can guarantee you that no one likes sports as much as this dude:

Meet Jerry Joseph ... err, Guerdwich Montimere.

Montimere is a 22 year old (illegal) Haitian immigrant who played high school basketball at Fort Lauderdale's Dillard High School. After leading Dillard to the 2007 Florida class 5A semifinals, he graduates and signs a basketball scholarship with Highland Community College in Freeport, Ill. Montimere then moves to Illinois, attends school for about two seconds, and promptly drops out.

So, college life was not for him. Fine, right? No big deal. If college life is not for Montimere, then he can choose to do something else with his life. Most people would agree with that. The thing is, he didn't decide to quit school altogether. Oh, no. He thought it might be a good idea to get a fresh start and wipe the slate clean after his brief tenure at Highland, so he transfers to a small school in Texas. Okay, that's cool. There are several good community colleges in Texas that he could attend. So which one did he choose? If you guessed Nimitz Junior High in Odessa, then you would be correct!

Nimitz Junior High. Not junior college, junior high. It turns out that Montimere's buddy from Dillard High School, Jabari Caldwell, was enrolled at the University of Texas-Permian Basin at the time. So, Montimere moves into the dorm with Caldwell (whom he claimed was his half-brother) and enrolls at Nimitz Junior High, posing as a 15 year old Haitian immigrant named Jerry Joseph. His Haitian birth certificate (FYI, even real Haitian birth certificates are about as legitimate as the paper inside a fortune cookie at your local China Dragon) shows that he is 15 years old, so Nimitz accepts Montimere.

A few months later, Caldwell moves back to Florida and Montimere needs a place to stay. It was the summer before Montimere's "sophomore" year at Permian High School, the famous football powerhouse that inspired the book/movie/TV series Friday Night Lights. In need of a home and family structure, the Permian basketball coach, Danny Wright, takes Montimere into his home and welcomes him into his family. This part of the story is very Blindside-esque -- you know, the story of how the Tuohy family took Michael Oher (tackle for the Baltimore Ravens) off the streets of Memphis and into their home and helped turn his life around -- except, in this case, the loving family was Blindsided by some 22 year old poser who's got basketball Jones and wants to chase some high school tail. Oh, yes, he went down that path. He not only starred on the basketball court; Montimere apparently gave a 15 year old classmate the "full Monty" at her dad's house one summer afternoon. The family is now pressing charges.

So, to make a long story short, Montimere became a basketball star during his sophomore year at Permian, he was voted District 2-5A Newcomer of the Year by area coaches, he lived and attended church with the basketball coach and his family, and then, out of the blue, he was identified by a couple of his former AAU coaches from Florida at an AAU tournament in Arkansas. They insisted that he was not "Jerry Joseph," but he was, in fact, a much older young man named Guerdwich Montimere. After several weeks of piecing together the puzzle that was Montimere's identity, authorities finally identified "Joseph" as Montimere. Believe it or not, he could have avoided jail time had he chosen to simply not have sex with a 15 year old classmate, but heck, he'd come this far, right? Since he decided to move "all in," Montimere now faces more than 30 years in prison if convicted of all the crap he's stirred up for himself.

On the surface, this story is beyond ridiculous, but I'd like to think we can learn some valuable lessons from Monty's escapades. In fact, let's see if we can do a top 10 list.

The top 10 things we can learn from Guerdwich Montimere:

10. If you are Jonesing for some hoops and don't want to attend college, just go to the Y.

9. If you're a black dude and need a fake birth certificate, definitely manufacture a Haitian one. No one will ever know the difference.

8. If you want to pretend to be a 15 year old, when you're actually 22, and star on a HS basketball team, then go to Texas and choose a sports-crazed school like Permian (how cool would it have been if Monty had chosen the name "Boobie Miles" instead of "Jerry Joseph?").

7. If you want to have sex with a classmate, then, for heaven's sake, choose an 18 year old senior.

6. If your coach asks you if you want to play on an AAU team and travel to tournaments where you might run into your old coaches from Florida, just say "no thanks."

5. If your buddy decides to move back to Florida, then move back with him. Don't move in with your HS basketball coach and his family, especially if you're 22.

4. If you want to pose as a teenage kid, then why don't you start out in high school, rather than middle school?

3. If you are an illegal immigrant like Monty and end up in a similar predicament, simply notify the mass media that Arizona police officers captured you while you were going out for ice cream and made you do it as part of their grand scheme to put a black eye on all "illegal immigrant-patriot-victims" such as yourself.

2. When someone tells you to "stay in school for as long as you can," don't take it literally.

1. Illegal immigration is NOT a problem (haha, I almost typed that with a straight face).

So, boys and girls, I hope you learned as much as I did from our friend, Guerdwich Montimere. Remember, if you agree to play a college sport, then follow through with the commitment rather than dropping out and going back to junior high. And if you drop out of college and go back to high school, please don't have sex with the girls. If you do, then it'll cost you 30-plus.

All right, Monty; it was nice talking about you. We'll see you when you're 55.

Kentucky finally finds its forward

2010-05-16T00:17:00.010-05:00

With only four days left in the late signing period, Kentucky finally reels in its power forward for the 2010-2011 basketball season. Eloy Vargas, originally a Florida Gator, transferred to Miami-Dade Community College (the same JUCO school that produced Darnell Dodson), and he has now decided to bring his 25 points and 15 rebounds per game to Lexington. While Coach Cal would certainly still like to pick up Terrence Jones (the elite PF who is waffling on his UW verbal commitment), Vargas is not a bad consolation prize. Vargas, who was ranked #26 overall in the 2008 Rivals 150, will have two years of eligibility remaining.

Now that Kentucky has a legit power forward option for next season, I think we can finally predict a depth chart:

PG: Brandon Knight (FR), (Doron Lamb), Jarrod Polson (FR walk-on)

SG: Doron Lamb (FR), Jon Hood (SO), Stacey Poole (FR)

SF: Darius Miller (JR), DeAndre Liggins (JR), Darnell Dodson (JR)

PF: Eloy Vargas (JR)

C: Enes Kanter (FR), Josh Harrellson (SR)

Not bad. While this group doesn't appear to have a John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins-type talent, this is a solid group with a couple of future lottery picks in Brandon Knight and Enes Kanter. Doron Lamb might surprise people with his Rip Hamilton-esque mid range game, and he is probably a future first round pick. I think the addition of Vargas assures a preseason top 15 ranking for Kentucky, and I think anything short of a Sweet 16 appearance would be disappointing. Furthermore, the addition of Vargas should catapult Kentucky past Memphis, North Carolina, and Ohio State in the recruiting rankings, giving the Wildcats the top class in the country for two years in a row. It's a great time to be a Cat!

NBA point guards: A look at playoff performances and draft value

2010-05-11T00:50:00.017-05:00

If you're like me, then you've been spending quite a bit of time watching the NBA playoffs lately. And if you've spent a lot of time watching the NBA playoffs, then you've probably noticed the high quality of point guard play during 2010's version of the tournament. Although not every good point guard performer has advanced past the first or second round, it was often the case that their teams would have been in far worse trouble had it not been for their efforts in keeping them afloat. Point guards typically don't garner the same level of attention as the elite wings and big men, a la Kobe, LeBron, Shaq, Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, etc., but I might argue that the point guards of the 2010 playoffs have been the main story thus far.

It all started with Derrick Rose averaging 26.8 pts, 7.2 ast, and 3.4 reb in a five game series against LeBron and the Cavs. Unfortunately for Rose, the Bulls' second best player is Joakim Noah, so an early exit to the top seed was pretty much inevitable. Then, Russell Westbrook introduced himself to casual basketball fans with his impressive six game series against the Lakers, averaging 20.5 pts, 6 ast, and 6 reb and often picking up the slack for Kevin Durant when his shot wasn't falling. Westbrook's numbers are good, but his energy and propensity for big plays can't be fully explained in the box score. Deron Williams helped the Jazz take care of the Nuggets in the first round, but he didn't have enough help to overcome the Lakers. Nevertheless, his playoff averages of 24.3 pts, 10.3 ast, and 2.7 reb are ridiculously good, and he did it against veteran point guards who are known for being ruthless in the playoffs -- Chauncey Billups and Derek Fisher.

Those three guys were terrific, but most people would agree that the two best playoff point guards so far have been Steve Nash and Rajon Rondo. Nash is a straight killer. He led the Suns to a herky-jerky series win over the Blazers before ripping the heart out of the Spurs. The funny thing is that he looks so harmless. He's listed at 6'-3", 178 lbs, but he looks more like 6'-1", 165 lbs. The guy has a very strict diet and conditioning routine that enables him to run around for 34 minutes per game without losing any steam. He's averaging 17.8 pts, 9 ast, and 3.1 reb after 10 playoff games so far, which is fantastic, but like Westbrook, his impact on the game goes well beyond the box score. Nash has been a master of dictating the team's pace and energy level while also flawlessly executing fast breaks, pick-and-rolls, and everything in between. His combination of top-notch ball handling, body control, and shiftiness allows him to penetrate the lane pretty much at will, and for a 36 year old, that is simply amazing. I hope he plays until he's 50; the guy is just so much fun to watch.

As for Rondo, I've known about his potential for quite some time, being that I'm a Kentucky homer ... err, fan. It's neat to see someone who was considered "raw" or a "project" coming out of college transform his game into that of a mature, composed, veteran point guard. Rondo is really one of a kind. It's pretty tough to find an active NBA player to whom you can compare Rondo. Some might say he has a little bit of Mookie Blaylock in him. Personally, I think the best comparison might be, coincidentally, Kentucky guard, John Wall. Wall is a little taller and is a better leaper, but both are super fast with the ball in their hands, both have incredible court vision and awareness (and the passing skills to take advantage of it), both prefer to drive or pull up for a short jumper or floater, rather than take long jumpers, and both have more than a little bit of showman in them -- a certain bit of flair (this and this, but not this). Oh, and both have really long arms, which gives them a distinct advantage on defense and with rebounding. While Wall is certainly the more talented prospect of the two and has the higher ceiling, Rondo is tearing it up against elite competition. A couple of nights ago, he absolutely went off to the tune of 29 pts, 13 ast, and 18 reb in a critical game four against the Cavs. He is averaging 17.9 pts, 11.4 ast, and 7.1 reb in nine playoff games so far.

As you might know, Nash and Rondo were not lottery picks. Nash was the 15th pick in the 1996 draft, and Rondo was the 21st pick in the 2006 draft. That might seem high if we were discussing NFL or MLB draft picks, but in the NBA, a non-lottery pick is not expected to ever develop into an all-star caliber player. Obviously, some do, but it is not a realistic expectation. In fact, a late first round pick might never play significant minutes, even off the bench. For that reason, I think it is interesting that the two most dominant point guards of the 2010 playoffs were both selected in the bottom half of the first round. You could say that the Celtics and Suns (although, Nash played for the Mavericks for six years in between two stints with the Suns) are receiving very good value on those selections. This piqued my curiosity, and so I proceeded to take a look at the NBA's 30 top point guards (I selected the top 30 leaders in assists per game among PG's) for 2010 and created a simple formula for calculating their value in relation to their draft slot. I did two separate tables: one for 2010 stats, and another for their career stats. I simply added their points per game and their assists per game, and then added a number based on their draft slot. This is hardly scientific, and you could easily argue for different numeric values for the draft slots, but I decided on this: 1 point for a top 5 pick, 2 points for picks 6-14, 3 points for picks 15-30, and 4 points for a second rounder or undrafted free agent (the Raptors' Jose Calderon was the only one). The higher the sum of the three numbers, the better the value. Therefore, if a player is selected in the top five and averages 10 pts and 10 ast, then he scores a 21. If a player drafted in the second round averages 10 pts and 8 ast, then his score is 22. The second-rounder is the better value, despite the fact that he averages two fewer assists per game. Like I said, the values are up for debate, and we could also look at this from a salary point of view, but it's interesting to look at and talk about, nonetheless. Here are the results:

2009-2010 PG Value Chart:

Not surprisingly, Nash, Chris Paul, and Williams are the top three and have nearly identical numbers. While Paul and Williams have a slightly higher scoring average than Nash, he gains a little bit of ground value-wise by being a lower draft pick. The Rockets' young scoring point guard, Aaron Brooks jumps into the ranks of the elite due to his three points for being a late first round pick. Even though players like Brooks and Nash get extra value points for being low draft picks, six of the top ten only received one draft point, since they were top five picks. The highest ranked player with four draft points is the Raptors' undrafted Spaniard, Jose Calderon at number 19. The lowest ranked player for 2009-2010 with one draft point is the Hawks' Mike Bibby at number 29. Bibby, however, is past his prime and is not a bust by any means. He is simply not capable of putting up the scoring totals that he did in his days with the Kings. The next lowest high profile draft picks are Raymond Felton and Mike Conley at numbers 22 and 23, respectively. Both are still relatively young, but their teams are certainly growing impatient as they wait for them to live up to their lofty draft status, which comes with a higher salary.

Career PG Value Chart:

The career chart shows most of the same names at the top, with the addition of Tyreke Evans. Evans benefits from a rookie of the year campaign during which he put up fantastic stats, so he has the advantage of not having to include any poor statistical seasons in his average. The same goes for Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings, so it will be interesting to see if they can improve on their rookie numbers next year or if they will experience sophomore slumps. If they improve, then all three will be considered elite NBA point guards in only their second year. As for right now, it is a bit too early to label them as surefire, top notch point guards, even though they are certainly on the right track.

Similarly to the first chart, the career chart shows only three players in the top ten who were not top five draft picks: Nash, Curry, and Andre Miller. While Nash, Brooks, and Rondo were the highest rated "low" draft picks in the first chart, Nash separates himself from the other two in the career chart, and Darren Collison, propelled by the fact that he is a rookie who had a nice year, jumps past Brooks and Rondo to stake the claim as the highest ranked player who was drafted in the twenties or below. Interestingly, only three of the bottom 15 point guards have a draft point of one, so over the span of their careers, it looks like the overwhelming majority of the elite point guards are high draft picks, even though the lower picks benefit from a couple of extra draft points. Clearly, we would expect higher draft picks to perform better than those picked outside the lottery, but it is a bit surprising to see the degree to which they out-perform the lower picks, especially since the point system gives the them a slight advantage. If you want to talk busts, then the conversation should obviously start with Mike Conley, who is ranked 25th. Conley was the fourth overall pick in 2007, and he is the lowest ranked player who was picked in the top five of his draft. The only other high draft pick who is close to Conley is Devin Harris at number 23. Harris, however, has had a couple of very solid years, a claim that Conley cannot make at this point in his career.

So, what did we learn? I think this means that teams should not necessarily try to look for the next Nash or Rondo -- that is, an under the radar player who falls outside the lottery. While those players are wonderful to come by, it is probably not the most realistic way to find your point guard of the future. It might also be interesting to note that two high profile players who did not qualify this year due to missing too many games, Tony Parker and Gilbert Arenas, are late first round and second round picks, respectively. They certainly would have shown well on the chart, but they are not your prototypical point guards, either. Arenas is obviously known more for his shooting ability, and Parker is not a true floor general type of point guard, either. Aaron Brooks and Rodney Stuckey are two guys on the chart who would tend to be described in a way other than "true" point guards, and they were also lower draft picks. One might gather that if you want a good, "true" point guard, then it will probably cost you a lottery pick -- probably one in the top five. But if your offense allows for a non-traditional point guard, then you might consider taking your chances with a lower pick and hope for the next Parker, Arenas, Brooks, or Stuckey to fall in your lap.

So, having said all of that, I hope you take the time to sit down and watch some of these great point guards do their thing. Most people want to see a Lakers-Cavs final so that they can see the Kobe vs LeBron matchup. But if that doesn't happen, maybe we can get Suns-Celtics and watch Nash vs Rondo. It might not get the hype of the Mamba vs the King, but at least the point guard match up would be way better than Derek Fisher vs Mo Williams.

Titans' running back wants new contract; should organization oblige?

2010-05-06T19:36:00.007-05:00

If you follow the Tennessee Titans, or the NFL off-season in general, then you have probably heard about Chris Johnson's publicly-declared request for a new, lucrative contract after only two years in the league. The 24th selection in the 2008 NFL draft, Johnson is entering the third year of his original five year, 12 million dollar contract. One could easily argue that he is outplaying that contract, and Johnson and his agent, Joel Segal, are arguing just that. But should the Titans acquiesce to this request?

On one hand, the Titans would love to reward Johnson for his amazing play and keep him happily in a Titans uniform for about seven more years. Johnson brings a dimension to the Titans offense that has not been seen since the organization moved to Nashville in the late 90's. For the last decade, the Titans have been known for having good offensive and defensive lines, conservative quarterback play with a dual threat playing the position, a bruising running game designed to control the clock, and the occasional play-action pass to the tight end. The Titans had a year or two of "Air McNair" chucking the ball around to Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, Justin McCareins, and Tyrone Calico, but those years were the exception, not the rule. The Titans have handed the ball to guys like Eddie George, Chris Brown, Travis Henry, and LenDale White for so long that it seems odd to have such an electric player with the ball in his hands so often in a Jeff Fisher offense. I would assume that the front office would like to hang on to such an offensive jewel for as long as possible, even if it costs a hefty price.

But on the other hand, the Titans would like to protect themselves from the unknown. What if Johnson goes down with an ACL tear next season after he signs a mega-contract? What if he takes a few too many shots and he becomes far less effective after two or three years, leaving the Titans on the hook for 30-40 million dollars over the last few years of his contract? NFL teams typically protect themselves from things like this by structuring the contract in a way that would allow them to release a highly-paid player three to four years into the deal. For instance, if the Titans agreed to pay Johnson 9 million dollars per year for 7 years, then they would probably like to structure the deal like this:

30 million dollar signing bonus (guaranteed)
Year one salary: $1 million
Year two salary: $2 million
Year three salary: $3 million
Year four salary: $4 million
Year five salary: $6 million
Year six salary: $7 million
Year seven salary: $10 million

Now, contracts are more complicated than the way I laid it out, but the object remains the same: give the player a nice signing bonus up front to keep him happy, but escalate the yearly salaries each year, because the yearly salary does not count against the cap if the player is released. So, if the Titans decided to let Johnson go after three years, then he would make 36 million dollars, and the Titans would not be responsible for the remaining 27 million dollars.

That is a typical salary. Unfortunately, the Titans won't be able to have much freedom if they decided to restructure Johnson's deal because of the "30 percent rule" that teams must follow, since a new CBA is not yet in effect and 2010-2011 will be an uncapped year. The rule pretty much states that a player's yearly salary cannot increase by more than 30 percent from 2010 to 2011 in the event of a contract restructuring. This article by Andrew Brandt explains it very well: 30 percent rule explained. Since Johnson earned $385,000 in base salary last year, it can only increase by $115,000 this year, and so on. The rule can be circumvented if the team is willing to pay a small base salary with a massive signing bonus, but this risky practice should not be expected.

Another interesting factor to consider is the lack of immediate production from running backs drafted in the late first round or second round since the 2000 draft. Of the 38 players who fit this description (I included Frank Gore, who was the first pick of the third round in 2005), only 15 of them combined for 1,500 total rushing yards during their first two years in the league, and only six runners totaled at least 2,000 yards. In fact, only two running backs drafted in the second half of the first round or second round have had eye-popping statistics during their first two years in the league. One of them, obviously, is Chris Johnson. The other is Clinton Portis, who was the 51st pick in the 2002 draft. Take a look at the top five performers who fit the criteria:

Chris Johnson, 24th pick - Titans 3,234 rushing yards 26 TDs (total)
Clinton Portis, 51st pick - Broncos 3,099 rushing yards 31 TDs (total)
Frank Gore, 65th pick - 49ers 2,303 rushing yards 12 TDs (total)
Travis Henry, 58th pick - Bills 2,167 rushing yards 18 TDs (total)
Matt Forte, 44th pick - Bears 2,167 rushing yards 16 TDs (total)

As you can see, Johnson and Portis are in a class all by themselves -- at least since the turn of the century. This issue does not affect players drafted in the top of the first round, because they obtained substantial salaries from the start; there is no need for them to restructure.

So, what did Clinton Portis and his agent do after two years? Well, here is an excerpt from a 2004 ESPN.com article by Len Pasquarelli (you can read the entire article HERE):

As a rookie, Portis signed a four-year contract that included a $1.29 million signing bonus but only minimum annual base salaries. His scheduled base salaries for the last two years of the deal are $380,000 in 2004 and $455,000 for 2005. At the Pro Bowl two weeks ago, Portis suggested he might boycott training camp unless his contract was upgraded and his comments did not sit well with Broncos management.

Sounds kind of like the Chris Johnson situation, doesn't it? Here is how the story ends: Portis traded to Redskins for Champ Bailey. The Redskins were willing to do something that the Broncos were not -- pay a ton of money to a running back. It has become common knowledge that a running back's NFL life expectancy is significantly shorter than that of a quarterback, wide receiver, or pretty much any other position. Previously productive running backs who become free agents after the age of 28 are pretty much destined to receive less-than-flattering offers from teams, even if they desperately need running back help. It is much more cost-effective to draft a running back in one of the early rounds, rather than take the risk with a guy approaching his thirties who might blow out a tire and never again be the same.

Just take a look at the Thomas Jones - Shaun Greene situation this year with the Jets. Or how about the way the Colts handled Edgerrin James? They simply cut bait and drafted Joseph Addai (and later, Donald Brown). I don't have to even get into the Titans' handling of Eddie George being replaced by Chris Brown (this one, not this one). Sometimes these things can get ugly, but you can't always blame the organizations. This isn't Major League Baseball; the NFL has a salary cap. Money can't be wasted on washed-up running backs.

So, where does this leave the Titans and Chris Johnson this year? Personally, I think the Titans are avoiding a huge headache since the 30 percent rule is in effect. Even a big time agent like Joel Segal (here is a list of his organization's clients) is unlikely to challenge a team to offer a big time extension which would have to include a massive signing bonus with a paltry salary. Therefore, I think Chris Johnson will continue to skip OTA's, but he will report to mandatory training camp practices. OTA's are voluntary, but players are charged hefty fines for skipping training camp. Chris Johnson, despite the dreadlocks and shiny grill, is, by all accounts, a professional, and he will not want to cause too much of a stir and become a team cancer. If a new CBA were in effect, however, then I think this could have potentially gotten ugly. Potential debacles such as this might add fuel to the fire for those pushing for the NFL to adopt an NBA-like rookie salary scale, but that is another post for another day.